Insa poll for Mecklenburg-Vorpommern: Red-Red-Green coalition arithmetically possible

At the same time, the survey shows that an alliance of the SPD, Linke and Greens – a so-called red-red-green coalition – would be arithmetically possible. The three parties together reach 44 percent of the vote in the poll. That puts them above the threshold required for a majority in the state parliament, even though none of the three parties would individually be the strongest force.

The red-red-green constellation had already been discussed as an option after the 2021 state election, after the incumbent minister-president at the time had arithmetically reached a corresponding majority. In the current poll, it emerges that this possibility could arise again, provided voters make the corresponding choice on election day.

Red-Red-Green: Arithmetical majority possible

The AfD benefits from slight gains in the Insa survey, but according to the available data remains below the level it had reached in earlier state polls. The SPD is also able to improve slightly and consolidates its position as one of the supporting parties of state politics. The Greens also record a slight plus, which increases their chances of re-entering the state parliament.

The Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW), which had hoped for a notable share of the vote in its first-time run in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, also plays a role in the current Insa survey. The exact figures for the BSWN are given in the published poll; and they shape the picture of the party landscape in the state.

For the question of which coalition would be possible in the state parliament after the election, the distribution of seats is decisive in addition to the absolute distribution of votes. Since the distribution of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern is determined by the so-called divisor method with rounding according to the procedure under the state electoral law, arithmetical majorities may shift under certain circumstances.

Significance for the campaign

Observers of state politics interpret the poll as an indication that the remaining weeks of the campaign will come to focus on the question of which alliances are realistic after the election. The prospect of a red-red-green alliance could put both the SPD and the Linke and the Greens under pressure to openly communicate possible coalition conditions.

At the same time, it remains unclear how stable the figures measured in the poll will be by election day. Opinion research institutes regularly point out statistical uncertainties in such polls, which arise from the sample size and the composition of respondents.

The Insa survey joins a series of polls published in the weeks before the state election. Overall, it paints a picture of an open starting position, in which several coalition options appear arithmetically possible.

Assessment of the survey

For voters in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, this means that the state election will decide not only on the composition of the state parliament, but also on the future governing coalition. The possibility of a red-red-green alliance is one of the options gaining weight in the political debate.

Overall, the Insa poll reflects the current mood among the population of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern ahead of the vote and provides the parties and the public with an orientation regarding the possible majority situation after the election.

Substantive evaluations of the poll results or speculation about the election outcome are not covered by the Insa survey itself; it merely reflects the mood measured at the time of the survey.