New poll in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern: AfD ahead, Red-Red-Green mathematically possible

Die Linke stood at 11 percent, the CDU at 10 percent. The BSW reached 6 percent, the Greens were recorded at 4 percent, and the FDP at 3 percent. In a poll published on 23 June by the Insa Institute on behalf of the "Nordkurier," the AfD led with 35 percent ahead of the SPD with 28 percent. The survey published on Thursday was, however, conducted by the opinion research institute Infratest dimap for Norddeutscher Rundfunk.

Roughly ten weeks before the state election, the AfD is still in the lead in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern according to a new poll, but could come off worse behind a red-red-green alliance. The SPD, Die Linke, and the Greens together accounted for 46 percent – one percentage point more than all other parties currently represented in the state parliament.

Three-party coalition as an option

The Greens – who have so far been polling at 4 percent, below the five-percent threshold – would gain one point according to the new survey and would thus be represented in the next state parliament, which will be elected on 20 September. Such an alliance would be the first three-party coalition in the history of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern.

The BSW, like the FDP and all other parties, would likely fail to clear the five-percent threshold. Schwesig's SPD had still reached 39.6 percent in the 2021 state election; the AfD came in at 16.7 percent at the time, the CDU at 13.3, Die Linke at 9.9, the Greens at 6.3, and the FDP at 5.8 percent of the vote.

For the poll, a total of 1,167 eligible voters of all age groups, educational backgrounds, and genders in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern were surveyed between 2 and 6 July 2026. According to NDR, the survey is representative.

Reactions from the parties

AfD lead candidate Leif-Erik Holm said: "Es soll noch mehr werden und wir wollen die Alleinregierung. Jetzt geht der zweimonatige Wahlkampf ja erst los." In a hypothetical direct election for Minister-President, Holm reached 27 percent, while incumbent Schwesig reached 49 percent – two points more than in May.

Schwesig herself was restrained: "Das ist noch ein Weg, aber es ist gleichzeitig Motivation, die letzten Wochen vor der Wahl zu nutzen, um die Menschen zu überzeugen, dass unser Land stabil und verlässlich regiert werden kann." 51 percent of those surveyed continue to reject an AfD Minister-President, while 50 percent consider a coalition involving the AfD fundamentally possible.

Direct election and personnel issues

CDU General Secretary Katy Hoffmeister said: "Wir sind einer ständigen Polarisierung ausgesetzt, nämlich zwischen ganz links und ganz rechts und das nutzt beiden Blöcken und schadet uns derzeit. Aber dieses Land braucht dringend eine starke Mitte." The CDU assessed the poll as a "snapshot."

Deputy Minister-President Simone Oldenburg (Die Linke) said: "Es zeigt, dass wir die richtigen Schwerpunkte setzen und dass die Linke gebraucht wird." According to the data, Die Linke had to give up one point compared to the last poll and now stands at 12 percent – though still above its result from five years ago.

Greens lead candidate Claudia Müller stated: "Wir müssen um jede Stimme kämpfen, es geht darum, dass wir im Landtag sind um dann stabile demokratische Mehrheiten zu sichern." The party would thereby manage to re-enter the state parliament.

Methodology and classification of the poll

Election polls are generally always subject to uncertainties. Weakening party ties, increasingly short-term voting decisions, and other factors make it more difficult for opinion research institutes to weight the data collected. In principle, polls only reflect the state of opinion at the time of the survey and are not forecasts of the election outcome. For the Insa survey from June, a margin of error of plus/minus 3.1 percentage points was given; for the Infratest dimap survey, the range of fluctuation is two points for a share of ten percent and three points for a share of 50 percent.

According to the statements of the players, all parties see certainty only on election Sunday. The Insa survey in June reached 1,000 participants between 11 and 18 June via online survey; the Infratest dimap survey combined 676 telephone interviews with 491 online interviews.

Outlook on the election campaign

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern will elect a new state parliament on 20 September 2026. Schwesig has been Minister-President of the state since 2021.