Iranian Revolutionary Guard reports attacks on US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain

Background of the Escalation

The US attacks to which Iran responded had been carried out on Tuesday evening and during the night into Wednesday (CEST) according to US Central Command (Centcom). They targeted more than 80 sites in Iran, including air defense systems, anti-ship missiles, and more than 60 boats of the Revolutionary Guard. According to US government information provided to the news portal Axios, the strikes were four to five times more powerful than a US attack wave some one and a half weeks earlier. There was initially no official confirmation from the Iranian leadership in Tehran that the attacks in Kuwait and Bahrain were Iranian in origin.

The US military justified the attack wave with the shelling of three tankers in the area of the Strait of Hormuz, for which Washington held the leadership in Tehran responsible. Iranian state television reported that on Wednesday morning (local time), explosions were heard on the island of Qeshm, in the city of Sirik, and in the important port city of Bandar Abbas. There were also reports of missile launches near the port city of Bushehr, located roughly 300 kilometers from Bahrain. A US MQ-9 drone was also shot down during the counterattacks.

The US State Department and US Treasury Department simultaneously announced the revocation of an exemption granted roughly two weeks earlier for the sale of Iranian oil. As a result, transactions involving Iranian crude oil, petrochemicals, and petroleum products will once again be sanctioned. The Iranian Foreign Ministry condemned the step as a violation of the Islamabad Memorandum on ceasefire and declared that it held Washington responsible for the consequences and would "take all necessary measures to safeguard its own interests and national security."

Reactions of the International Community

The Iranian leadership also pointed out that it regarded a ceasefire signed only days earlier as having been violated. Centcom, conversely, stated that Iranian aggression represented "a flagrant violation of the agreed ceasefire" and that Iran would "pay a heavy price." NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte described the latest US attacks on the margins of the NATO summit in Ankara as "absolutely necessary." If a ceasefire is in place and Iran violates it, it is "absolutely crucial that the US respond decisively," he said.

According to Kuwait, the attacks constituted "repeated, unlawful Iranian attacks" on its own sovereign territory that undermined de-escalation efforts. Qatar held Iran responsible for the attack and spoke of a danger to the security of international shipping and global energy supply. The Qatari LNG tanker "Al-Rekayyat" was reportedly struck by an "unknown projectile" and suffered substantial damage.

Iran had repeatedly declared in recent days that only the route it had prescribed through the Strait of Hormuz might be used and had warned ships against routes outside a specific corridor along its coast. Ship traffic through the strait had only resumed after the signing of a framework agreement between Washington and Tehran last month. Iran is simultaneously insisting that there will be no return to the pre-war rules, when the strait could be transited freely and free of charge.

Impact on Shipping and Markets

According to current information, no civilian fatalities were reported from the attacks in Iran; in Sirik several people were injured by shrapnel, and fishing boats caught fire in Sirik and Bandar Abbas. Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian, who had previously been attending memorial ceremonies in neighboring Iraq, cut short his visit following the US attacks. Memorial ceremonies for Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had been scheduled in Iraq on Wednesday, ahead of his funeral on Thursday in his hometown of Mashhad.

Market reactions were swift: oil prices rose by more than 2.5 percent at the start of trading in Asia, reaching the highest level in two weeks. Thomas Juneau, a professor at the University of Ottawa, assessed that both sides currently wanted to avoid a return to open war and would likely de-escalate soon after the mutual retaliatory strikes. Donald Trump had most recently threatened Iran again, saying there would either be a deal or the US would "finish the job."

The Iranian Revolutionary Guard had warned before the start of the memorial ceremonies that "any miscalculation will be met with a resolute and even harsher response than ever before." Iranian Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi announced that Iran would "take resolute measures to safeguard its national interests and security." Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that negotiations on a final agreement would not begin as long as the threats continued.