June 2026 Heatwave: €6.3 Billion in Damage to the Economy

Main Cause: Declining Work Productivity

The main cause of the losses, at 97 percent, was the declining productivity of employees: accordingly, around 97 percent of the damages are attributable to workers who work more slowly in extreme heat, are less focused, and need to take more frequent breaks. Machine failures or supply chain issues play, at most, a minor role.

The economic damages vary greatly depending on temperature. On days with temperatures above 30 degrees Celsius, damages amount to about €431 million, rising sharply once temperatures reach 35 degrees Celsius. Economic damages then come to approximately €948 million per day.

In addition to productivity losses, damaged road surfaces and rails, as well as low water levels on shipping routes, further increased the cost of raw material supply, according to the Prognos calculations. Energy costs have not yet been captured in the calculation, Prognos expert Lukas Sander told the newspaper. "Die 6,3 Milliarden Euro sind sogar noch eher eine Untergrenze," said Sander.

Health Consequences and Infrastructure

The total calculation does not capture all consequences of the heatwave. The impact on people is also significant: according to estimates by the Robert Koch Institute, the two-week heat period cost 5,120 people their lives. The health burden is thus reflected not only in economic losses but also in increased mortality.

The Prognos experts described Germany as a business location simply unprepared for such high temperatures, as factories, buildings, and transport routes were built for a climate that no longer exists. It is expected that severe heatwaves will occur more frequently and last longer in the future.

Outlook: Growing Damages by 2030

Manfred Fischedick, President of the Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy, also sees Germany inadequately prepared for the consequences. "Wir diskutieren intensiv über Wettbewerbsfähigkeit und Konkurrenz aus China," Fischedick told the "Handelsblatt." "Gleichzeitig verlieren wir in den Sommermonaten immer häufiger Produktivität durch Hitze. Diese beiden Debatten gehören zusammen."

The long-term outlook is also serious: accordingly, by the year 2030, the economic damages from heatwaves could accumulate to as much as €112 billion. With three to four comparable heatwaves per year, experts estimate the economic damage at up to €20 billion. The authors of the analysis therefore see a particular need for action on heat protection in buildings, climate-resilient design of transport routes, and a more consistent adaptation of the working world to rising temperatures.

Experts are calling for increased investment in air conditioning, shading, and cooler working environments to safeguard employee productivity on hot days as well. Otherwise, according to the study's authors, Germany as a business location faces a structural competitive disadvantage.