Macron takes stock of the G7 summit in Évian and speaks of a 'strategic awakening'

Unity on the Ukraine issue

At the centre of the talks was the war in Ukraine, which Macron and his counterparts assess as no longer militarily winnable for Russia. According to the Élysée's account, the Russian armed forces are groaning under the consequences of heavy losses and the pressure of international sanctions, while Ukraine has gradually fought its way to a new position of strength. Taken together, the G7 states said, these developments open a window of opportunity for serious peace negotiations.

For the first time since the start of US President Trump's second term, Europeans and the United States share a common assessment of the situation in Ukraine, according to participants. This convergence was described on the sidelines of the summit as a politically significant turning point, because it could form the basis for coordinated action, for instance on further sanctions or possible negotiating contacts.

Trump in Évian: Strong appearances, clear signals

Trump himself travelled to Évian in a relaxed mood, according to his delegation. He arrived strengthened by what was described as an 'Iran deal', which, as he presented it, opens the prospect that oil tankers could soon pass through the Strait of Hormuz again. On entering the conference hall, he also made a visual statement with the remark 'I am the boss', signalling that he was taking to the summit stage as US president and not as one among many.

At the joint dinner on the sidelines of the meeting, another personal gesture drew attention: the G7 partners presented Trump with a football shirt. Participants interpreted the gift as a symbolic bridge-building gesture, after relations between Washington and several European capitals had been regarded as strained in recent months. Following the summit, Macron invited the US president to a gala dinner at Versailles.

Threats against Moscow and pressure on the Kremlin

On substance, Trump also sent a signal to Moscow: he held out the prospect of reimposing oil sanctions on Russia. According to the Élysée's analysis, this threat is intended to increase the pressure on the Kremlin and help secure the window of opportunity for peace negotiations just described.

Nonetheless, the official communication made no secret of the fact that the situation remains fragile. Despite the positive signals from Lake Geneva, the situation in Ukraine remains tense, the situation in Iran is unclear, and Europe's relationship with Trump continues to be vulnerable to setbacks. Self-satisfaction on the part of the G7, it was said, would therefore be out of place.

In the accompanying commentary, the emergence of the new unity was attributed above all to Trump. His arrival in Évian and his willingness to engage with a common reading of the Ukraine situation had made the breakthrough possible, wrote Julia Borutta in her analysis. Macron, with an eye to the prestige of the host, had visibly held back and left the stage to the US president.

A fragile unity

Observers pointed out, however, that this interpretation did not go unchallenged. Critics noted that a lasting G7 unity would only be proven once the new convergences translate into concrete political steps – for instance in shaping further sanctions packages or in deciding what a future security architecture for Ukraine might look like.

The clear loser of the summit, in the assessment of participants, was the issue of climate policy. According to the Élysée, Macron deliberately did not put the topic on the agenda. In doing so, the French host had shown consideration for the political priorities of the US administration, but at the same time had given those G7 partners who had wanted a stronger climate focus the brush-off.

Climate policy as the summit's loser

The coming weeks will show whether the unity that became visible in Évian on the Ukraine conflict can be turned into concrete negotiating results. Macron and his European colleagues announced their determination to use the window that has opened for peace talks. Should Trump actually follow through on his threat of tougher Russia sanctions, this would be a first concrete signal that the Évian unity is more than a snapshot.

The day after the end of the G7 meeting, Trump travelled on to Versailles, where Macron received him in the evening for a gala dinner. Both sides used the ceremonial programme to cultivate the personal dimension of the relationship and to underscore the political opening notes struck in Évian. The pictures from the château were meant to reinforce the message that, despite all the friction, the relationship between Washington and Paris remains intact.

Outlook: A window for negotiations

Overall, the Élysée's assessment is cautiously optimistic: in Évian, the G7 not only sent a signal of unity but also set the course for a coordinated approach in the coming weeks. In closing, Macron spoke of a 'strategic awakening' and of the democratic industrialised states having to seize the opportunities of the hour – a formulation that may also be read as a mandate for France's own diplomacy.

What is certain is that the diplomatic steps to come will show whether the unity invoked in Évian holds. If peace negotiations for Ukraine actually get under way, the G7 summit on Lake Geneva is likely to be recorded in the history books as a watershed. If, on the other hand, the unity breaks apart on the reality of the next crises, Évian will above all be remembered for its subjunctives.