Mediators propose new ten-day ceasefire between US and Iran

Military situation and US strikes

The US military strikes in Iran have now been continuing for ten nights. Iranian media had previously reported explosions, including in the Konarak area in the southeastern province of Sistan-Baluchestan, the port city of Chabahar on the Gulf of Oman, the city of Shiraz in the central south, near the island of Qeshm in the Strait of Hormuz, and the major city of Bandar Abbas. The targets were again military facilities, including air defense systems, command centers, and drone and missile launch sites, according to the US Central Command. The US military intends the strikes to stop Iran's attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, which is important for global energy trade.

US media report that the US is, in fact, deploying additional fighter and tanker aircraft to the region. Iran's chief negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, wrote on X that this shows the US is not serious about wanting to end the war. A ceasefire had also been in place since April, which Trump recently declared over.

Attacks on shipping and Kuwait

The situation at sea in the Gulf of Oman remains tense. A vessel off the coast of Oman was hit by an "unknown projectile," the British Maritime Trade Operations Agency (UKMTO) reported overnight. Just the day before, a ship had been attacked there and caught fire. Iran is demanding that ships take a route along its coast. Only this route, it says, is safe.

Meanwhile, the Gulf state of Kuwait once again came under Iranian fire. The country's army reported on X overnight that it had repelled "enemy missile and drone attacks." Kuwait, like other countries in the region that host US military bases, is repeatedly a target of Iranian counterstrikes. US President Trump wrote on his platform Truth Social: "Every time Iran kills an American soldier, he will pay for that death many times over!"

Diplomacy over Lebanon and Hezbollah

On the first visit by a Lebanese head of state to the White House since 2009, Trump is hosting Lebanese President Joseph Aoun today. Since April, Israel and Lebanon have been holding direct political talks for the first time in decades, with the Lebanese government not being a party to the war. The Hezbollah militia is not participating in the talks. Aoun is hoping Trump will press Israel to fully withdraw its troops from southern Lebanon.

On Monday, the first so-called pilot zones were established in southern Lebanon. They are considered a test run for a further Israeli withdrawal. The Lebanese armed forces are supposed to take control there, while the Israeli army simultaneously withdraws step by step. Despite the ceasefire, Israel continues to strike targets in its northern neighbor. According to observers, the Israeli withdrawal could still take months or longer. There is no timetable.

Mediators' concerns

The mediators feared that Washington and Tehran could get caught in a cycle in which they keep the conflict below the threshold of a full-scale war, but damage the regional economies indefinitely, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing the mediators.

In substance, the proposals link two theaters: the ongoing US strikes on Iranian military facilities and the simmering tensions between Israel, Lebanon, and Hezbollah. If the ten-day ceasefire takes hold, it would restore a ceasefire between Washington and Tehran for the first time since the end of the April agreement. Acceptance by Iran is considered uncertain, however, as Tehran additionally demands control of the Strait of Hormuz and an end to the Israel-Hezbollah conflict.

Outlook on negotiations

The mediating diplomacy is running in parallel with a visible military buildup by the US side in the region. The deployment of additional fighter and tanker aircraft signals, according to the mediators' reading, an escalatory readiness rather than a willingness to negotiate. Observers see the simultaneous dispatch of fighter jets and the submission of a ceasefire draft as a contradictory signal to Tehran.

What happens next, according to the mediators, depends on two factors: whether Tehran drops the additional demands — Hormuz control and an end to the Hezbollah conflict — and whether Washington maintains military pressure during the negotiations. A response to the ten-day ceasefire proposal has yet to be received.

The situation in Lebanon also remains open. The Israeli withdrawal from the pilot zones in the south has begun, but a binding timetable is lacking. President Aoun's visit to Washington is the first by a Lebanese head of state since 2009, underscoring the diplomatic significance of the meeting.