Merz welcomes Lithuanian openness to nuclear deterrence in view of Russia

Geographic location and threat perception

The background is Lithuania's direct geographic location between two neighbors perceived as threatening: Lithuania borders Belarus, which is regarded as a staging area for Russian armed forces, as well as the Russian Baltic exclave of Kaliningrad. Since the start of the Russian attack on Ukraine four years ago, Lithuania considers itself to be particularly threatened.

Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda had initiated a constitutional amendment in the same week to lift the ban on the stationing of nuclear weapons. He justified this step with the goal of removing all legal hurdles for Lithuania's participation in nuclear deterrence. "Es geht hier um das Ziel meines Landes, alle Möglichkeiten der nuklearen Abschreckung zu nutzen," said Nauseda. He also declared: "Und wir (...) möchten ein integraler Bestandteil dieser nuklearen Abschreckung sein."

State of nuclear deterrence in NATO

According to reporting, US nuclear weapons are stationed in five NATO member states as part of the alliance's nuclear deterrence: Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands, Italy and Turkey. According to this information, there are no concrete plans to station nuclear weapons in Lithuania so far. Unlike these five countries, Lithuania directly borders Russian territory and Belarus, which is regarded as an ally of Russia.

Poland has also signaled interest in participating in NATO's nuclear deterrence, according to the available information, and is holding talks with the United States on this. Poland – like Lithuania – borders the Russian Kaliningrad region. In addition to the United States, the United Kingdom and France also have their own nuclear weapons; neither of these two countries borders Russia.

Poland and other alliance partners

Merz placed the Lithuanian decision in a broader security policy context. By being willing to participate in nuclear deterrence, Lithuania is defending not only itself but also NATO territory at the same time. In doing so, he explicitly linked the national security policy of the Baltic EU and NATO state with the collective defense of the alliance.

Significance for the European security architecture

The meeting in Berlin underscores the growing importance of the Baltic states for the European security architecture. Lithuania considers itself to be in an exposed position since the Russian attack on Ukraine and is therefore seeking additional deterrence options. With its respectful acknowledgment of Lithuania's plans, the German government signals fundamental solidarity, without itself committing to the stationing of nuclear weapons in the region.

Overall, Merz assesses the Lithuanian initiative as an expression of increased readiness to defend NATO's eastern flank. With the planned constitutional amendment, Vilnius wants to keep its options open in order to be able to become part of the alliance's nuclear deterrence in the future. Whether and in what form such participation will actually materialize is currently open.