New poll on Saxony-Anhalt state election: AfD at 41 percent, CDU continues to slip

CDU rules out cooperation with the Left and the AfD

Against the backdrop of the poll numbers, the state CDU has reaffirmed its line on the question of possible coalitions. "Die Landes-CDU hat allerdings bekräftigt, weder mit der Linken noch der AfD zusammenarbeiten zu wollen," the party says. The CDU thereby categorically rules out both an alliance with the AfD and cooperation with the Left. This commitment significantly narrows the possible majorities after the election and makes constellations beyond the two named parties more likely.

According to the poll, the SPD and the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) are in the middle of the field and must worry about entering the state parliament and about their respective relative strengths, respectively. A reliable forecast of the seat distribution is not yet possible on the basis of the available data alone, since the survey shows margins of fluctuation especially for smaller parties. At the same time, it is relevant which party clears the five-percent hurdle on election Sunday and thereby gains influence on future majorities.

Middle of the field and outlook on the final stretch of the campaign

With a view to the closing phase of the campaign, CDU lead candidate Ulrich Siegmund and his state party are under pressure to regain lost ground. At the same time, it remains open how voters will factor the ongoing federal-policy debates and state-level issues in Saxony-Anhalt — from the economy and energy to education and internal security — into their decisions. The coming weeks are regarded as a decisive phase for mobilization and for last-minute swing voters.