Poll for Saxony-Anhalt: AfD strongest force, CDU continues to lose ground

The CDU comes in at 22 percent in the survey, thereby losing two points compared to the previous poll. This decline continues the downward trend among the state's Christian democrats already observed in earlier surveys. The SPD follows with lower figures, while the Greens and The Left also move in the single-digit range. According to the published data, the exact percentage figures for the smaller parties are rounded to whole percentages.

Survey methodology

Methodologically, the survey is based on 1,511 respondents, of whom 884 were interviewed by telephone and 627 online. The data were weighted by sociodemographic characteristics and recall of past voting behaviour, with the Sunday question receiving a separate weighting. infratest dimap gives the margin of fluctuation as two percentage points at a share of ten percent and three percentage points at a share of 50 percent. The results were rounded to whole percentages for better readability.

Politically, the poll in Saxony-Anhalt is being watched closely. For CDU lead candidate Sven Schulze, who is running as the CDU's candidate for Minister President, the result represents another hurdle in the campaign. The incumbent Minister President Ulrich Siegmund of the AfD can keep his party's figure stable, even though the leap to an absolute majority fails to materialise. The backdrop is the state election in Saxony-Anhalt, which will determine the composition of the state parliament and the succession to the office of Minister President.

Political assessment

The interpretation of the figures remains preliminary. Since the margin of fluctuation at a share of 22 percent is around three percentage points, the CDU's decline is statistically at the upper end of the usual range of fluctuation. For the remaining parties, the survey means a continued fragmentation of the centre camp, making coalition options beyond the AfD more complicated. An arithmetical majority beyond the AfD would only be possible through a coalition of several parties.

Observers see the poll as confirmation of the trend of recent months: the AfD has established itself as the strongest force in Saxony-Anhalt, and no change at the top is visible in the polls. At the same time, the gaps between the parties of the political centre are shrinking, which could make the search for alliances for government formation after the election more difficult. The next regular survey by infratest dimap is expected in a few weeks.

Outlook on the campaign

For the hot phase of the campaign, the result means an intensification of the confrontation between the AfD and the CDU. While the CDU is likely to push its lead candidate Sven Schulze further into the foreground, Ulrich Siegmund of the AfD will continue to emphasise the incumbent bonus. Both sides see the poll as a signal that confirms their respective strategies.

Overall, the figures show a political Saxony-Anhalt that is moving in a stable constellation ahead of the state election: the AfD ahead, the CDU with losses, smaller parties in the single-digit range. The coming weeks until the election will show whether any of the players can still break the trend or whether the picture will solidify by election day.