Oil price rises: Consequences of the Iran conflict for drivers

Why gas stations have remained calm so far

Thomas Puls, energy expert at the ADAC, explains the mechanics behind this development. "Da es weltweit nicht nur an Öl, sondern noch mehr an verfügbarer Raffineriekapazität fehlt, bietet sich eher ein Blick auf die Börsenpreise von Diesel und Benzin an." Here, traders had not shared the optimism of the oil market. In other words: fuel prices depend more strongly on refined products than on pure crude oil.

The background to the current situation is the long-standing extensive sanctions imposed, among others, by the USA against Iran. These measures already significantly restrict Iranian oil exports and ensure that global supply is tight anyway. "Allerdings sind bereits weitreichende Sanktionen gegen Iran in Kraft."

Should the conflict between Washington and Tehran escalate, the Strait of Hormuz would be a likely stage. About a fifth of the globally traded oil passes through this strait. A blockade or even a sustained disruption of shipping would have immediate consequences for Europe's supply.

The Strait of Hormuz as a powder keg

China is also watching the developments with great interest. As the world's largest oil importer, the People's Republic depends on stable supply chains from the region. A shortage would put prices under additional pressure not only in Europe but also in Asia, thereby endangering the global economic upswing.

For consumers in Germany, the current situation means above all one thing: stay alert. Although gas station prices are currently still stable, analysts point to the experiences of earlier crises, in which crude oil premiums were passed on to the pumps with a time lag. The ADAC advises keeping an eye on the development of refinery and exchange prices.

What consumers should know now

Meanwhile, the diplomatic situation remains unclear. US President Donald Trump has responded to Iranian threats with harsh words several times in recent days. The government in Tehran rejects the accusations and insists on its right to its own nuclear program. A clear end to the standoff is currently not in sight.

What is certain: as long as tensions in the Persian Gulf persist, the oil price remains a sensitive barometer for the global economy. Even small reports of incidents in the region are enough to make quotations on the exchanges rise sharply. For drivers in Germany, this means: prices at gas stations could very well continue to rise in the coming weeks.