Oil prices remain largely stable – concerns over Iran conflict persist

Sanctions and threats from Washington

In the background are reports of a possible expansion of US sanctions against Iran as well as speculation about a potential shift in military policy. The Strait of Hormuz, one of the most important sea lanes for global oil transport, is considered a critical flashpoint.

Meanwhile, the Israeli military announced on Sunday that it had killed senior Hezbollah commander Abu Hassan Alaa in southern Lebanon the day before. This escalation on Israel's northern border is heightening fears of a wider conflagration in the region.

Israeli military operation in southern Lebanon

Market observers stressed that, despite the geopolitical risks, investors continued to focus on the classic fundamentals. These included global demand trends, inventory levels, and the production policies of major producing countries.

The United States had repeatedly exerted pressure on Iran in recent weeks, including over Iran's nuclear program and its support for armed groups in the region. China, which imports Iranian oil on a large scale, is also watching the developments closely.

At the major trading hubs in London and New York, volatility initially remained low. Traders said many investors were waiting for clearer signals from Washington before building or unwinding larger positions.

Factors for future price movements

Some analysts pointed out that prices could rise more sharply in the short term if a naval blockade were actually imposed or tankers were attacked. The announcement of such measures had triggered price spikes in the past.

At the same time, North Sea production plays a role in supplying the European market. Changes there could also influence prices, particularly if tensions in the Persian Gulf intensify.

For the coming days, observers expect heightened market sensitivity. Any new reports of military movements, sanctions, or incidents in the Strait of Hormuz could trigger short-term swings.

Overall, the oil market is currently pricing the situation in the Persian Gulf as a risk, but not an acute crisis. The balance could shift quickly, however, if the security situation deteriorates further.