Oil prices rise after new Iranian missiles target US base in Jordan

Security situation at the Strait of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz connects the oil-producing regions of the Persian Gulf with world markets and is considered one of the most important sea lanes of the global energy supply. According to ship traffic data available on websites on Wednesday morning, vessel traffic through the strait remained low. RBC Capital Markets stated: „Die anhaltende Bedrohung durch Raketen, Minen, Drohnen und Maßnahmen Teherans wird einen erheblichen Teil des Schifffahrtsmarktes davon abhalten, sich zu engagieren.

Against the backdrop of the tensions, industrialized nations are increasingly drawing on their oil reserves. Official US government data on the development of reserves was expected later in the day on Wednesday. The evening before, the American Petroleum Institute (API) had already reported a decline in US crude oil inventories of 3.3 million barrels in the past week.

Reserves and market reactions

In parallel with the missile accusations, the US, together with its ally Saudi Arabia, reported attacks on "terrorists" in Iraq who are close to Iran. The reports could not initially be independently verified. On the oil markets, they led to a mixture of uncertainty and the expectation that the parties to the conflict would want to avoid further endangering energy infrastructure.

The price movement on Wednesday was, however, more moderate than during earlier escalation phases. Traders pointed out that the temporary ceasefire between Washington and Tehran had not yet been completely abandoned and that both sides had recently taken steps toward de-escalation. However, if the ceasefire continues to crumble, observers expect a renewed widening of risk premiums.

On the foreign exchange market, traditional oil importers such as India and Japan reacted with falling currencies, while the US dollar remained in demand as a safe haven. The euro weakened slightly. At the same time, prices for gold and other commodities that serve as stores of value in times of crisis rose.

Market participants are now looking at the official US inventory data announced for the afternoon and at possible statements from OPEC+, which is scheduled to meet on Thursday. If inventories decline as reported by the API, this could provide additional support to prices. If the situation calms down, however, the correction of recent days could continue.