Pacific Nations Criticize China's Submarine-Launched ICBM Test in the South Pacific

Criticism from Australia and New Zealand

Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong confirmed that Beijing had given the governments of neighboring states advance notice of the test. At the same time, she made clear to journalists that the government had communicated unambiguously to China "that we regard this as destabilizing for the region." The latest missile launch stands in the context of China's military buildup, with Beijing lacking transparency and explanations about its true intentions, Wong said.

New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters described it as an «unpleasant and concerning development» that runs counter to the South Pacific nuclear-weapon-free zone agreement. New Zealand and its partner countries would not tolerate the region becoming a stage for foreign military rivalry, Peters declared. The missile landed in the South Pacific nuclear-weapon-free zone, which was established in 1985 and encompasses Australia, New Zealand, and the islands of the South Pacific. Within the boundaries of the zone, the use, possession, and testing of nuclear weapons is prohibited.

Japan's Concern for Its Own Security Zone

Japan also expressed concern. The country, whose relations with China are severely strained, was warned by Beijing before the missile launch that debris could fall into waters within Japan's so-called exclusive economic zone. The test could "pose a threat to Japan's security – for example, through the overflight of Japanese airspace," according to a statement. "The Pacific is an ocean of peace, and we are deeply concerned about China's tests of nuclear-capable weapons in the South Pacific," a spokesperson declared.

Papua New Guinea Foreign Minister Justin Tkatchenko reported that he had been personally called by the Chinese ambassador. According to China's Ministry of Defense, the annually held exercise this year is held under the motto: "Jointly responding to security threats at sea." The test also occurred just hours after Australia signed a new defense agreement with Fiji.

According to Chinese media reports, the missile launch was the first such test since 2024. At that time, it had been China's first test of a long-range missile over international waters in more than 40 years. In September 2024, the People's Liberation Army had, according to official statements, fired an intercontinental ballistic missile with a dummy warhead for the first time in decades.

Military Background: Rearmament and Taiwan

China's government stated through the state news agency Xinhua that the test was conducted on the basis of applicable international law and was not directed against any single country or target. According to Wang's account, the missile launch was part of "China's annual military exercises," which are in accordance with international law. China has signed parts of the treaty framework for the South Pacific nuclear-weapon-free zone.

The background is a comprehensive modernization of the Chinese navy in recent years – also with a view to a possible escalation of the Taiwan conflict. The naval forces now have three aircraft carriers; the latest, the Fujian, was only commissioned by China at the end of last year. Last year, two Chinese warships and a supply ship also approached to within 150 nautical miles of the Australian city of Sydney.

Overview of China's Nuclear Capabilities

Dennis Blair, who was Supreme Commander of the USA in the Pacific from 1999 to 2002 and advised the Taiwanese military between 2003 and 2007, writes that Beijing has massively invested in aircraft carriers, submarines, amphibious vehicles, and missile systems for submarines in recent years. However, the military is not yet capable of a complete takeover of Taiwan, according to Blair.

According to current estimates, the People's Republic currently possesses more than 600 nuclear warheads. According to the US Department of Defense, China had more than 500 nuclear warheads in 2023. By 2030, Beijing could possess more than 1,000 nuclear bombs, according to these estimates. The missile test in the South Pacific was successful, according to the Chinese military.