Sipri Annual Report: Worldwide Arsenals of Operational Nuclear Weapons Continue to Grow

At the same time, the number of militarily usable warheads rose: Sipri recorded an increase from 9,614 to 9,745. Around 4,012 of these warheads were, according to the findings, deployed on missiles or at bases with operational forces — roughly one hundred more than the previous year. Between 2,100 and 2,200 warheads were, according to SIPRI, on high operational alert on ballistic missiles. Nearly all belonged to Russia and the United States, with France and the United Kingdom also possessing such warheads to a smaller extent.

China: Fastest Expansion in Decades

Russia and the United States together possess, according to Sipri, around 83 percent of all stored nuclear warheads. Specifically, the institute estimates the Russian arsenal at 5,420 and the US arsenal at 5,042 warheads. Both states are, according to the report, investing in new delivery systems such as bombers, submarines, and missiles, but face planning and financing problems in their modernization efforts.

Particularly striking, in Sipri's assessment, is the rapid expansion of the Chinese arsenal. China is, according to the findings, expanding its arsenal faster than any other country and now possesses around 620 warheads. The number thus rose within one year from approximately 600 to around 620. China has stored hundreds of missiles in three large silo fields in the north of the country and is working on further silos in the east. At the 2025 military parade, China also presented several new nuclear systems.

Depending on the pace of further expansion, China could, according to Sipri, possess at least as many land-based intercontinental missiles as Russia or the United States by the end of the decade. Even with a stockpile of more than 1,000 warheads, however, China would only reach around a quarter of the current Russian or American arsenals. Sipri also pointed out that China and India may have begun occasionally stationing a small number of warheads on missiles during peacetime.

Smaller Nuclear Powers: Modernization in India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel

France, the United Kingdom, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel are also, according to Sipri, modernizing their nuclear capabilities. India, the report states, possessed around 190 warheads at the beginning of 2026, while Pakistan remained at 170. North Korea, according to Sipri estimates, possesses around 60 operational warheads and enough fissile material for at least 30 more. Israel, which does not publicly confirm its possession of nuclear weapons, is estimated by the institute to have around 90 warheads.

A focus of the new report is the lapse of the New START treaty, which expired in February 2026 without a successor. As a result, for the first time since the end of the Cold War, there are no mutual limits and controls on strategic nuclear weapons between Washington and Moscow, Sipri writes. Without a follow-up treaty, Russia and the United States could theoretically load several hundred warheads onto existing delivery systems without building a single new delivery vehicle, explained Sipri expert Matt Korda.

Lapse of New START: First Time No Bilateral Limits Between the US and Russia

Sipri expert Matt Korda said the world is already in the midst of a new nuclear arms race in which every nuclear state is expanding its arsenal either quantitatively or qualitatively. "Wir stecken bereits mitten in einem neuen nuklearen Wettrüsten", Korda declared. The modernization and improvement of arsenals is, according to the report, triggering a chain reaction in which the actions of one state lead to similar steps by other nuclear powers. "Dieser Kreislauf ist extrem schwer zu durchbrechen", the researcher warned.

His colleague Hans Kristensen also expressed concern: "Es gibt immer mehr Anzeichen dafür, dass die Atomwaffenstaaten ihre Abrüstungsverpflichtungen vernachlässigen oder sogar ganz aufgeben und stattdessen ihre nukleare Stärke zur Schau stellen", Kristensen said. "Indem sie nach nuklearen Lösungen greifen, schaffen Staaten neue Risiken und schüren die Dynamik des Wettrüstens", he added. In the previous year, SIPRI had already warned in its annual report of a "dangerous nuclear arms race."

SIPRI Director Karim Haggag warned that a greater reliance on nuclear weapons in national security strategies could "significantly increase" nuclear risks. "Einflussreiche Stimmen, darunter einige Staats- und Regierungschefs, propagieren Atomwaffen als Garantie gegen Angriffe feindlicher Staaten. Eine stärkere Abhängigkeit nationaler Verteidigungs- und Sicherheitsstrategien von Atomwaffen könnte die nuklearen Risiken jedoch erheblich erhöhen", Haggag said. The dangers were increasing, the report continued, due to technological advances, the collapse of arms control, and heightened geopolitical tensions.

According to SIPRI's assessment, the decline in global nuclear stockpiles that has continued since the end of the Cold War could reverse in the coming years. "Die Demontage ausgemusterter Sprengköpfe verlangsame sich, während neue Atomwaffen schneller stationiert würden", the institute explained. For the first time since the end of the Cold War, the dismantling of retired warheads by Russia and the United States is lower than the deployment of new nuclear weapons.

Sipri criticizes the fact that states are increasingly using nuclear weapons as instruments of national power politics, thereby undoing decades of efforts at reduction. Russia stationed its latest nuclear-capable hypersonic missile Oreshnik in Belarus last year and practiced the use of nuclear weapons with Belarusian soldiers. In the war against Ukraine, Russia has repeatedly alluded to its nuclear potential to deter Western states from supporting Kyiv.

Power Politics and Nuclear Risks: Warnings from Sipri Researchers

Outside the traditional nuclear powers, interest in nuclear options is also, according to Sipri, growing. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk declared in March that his country would be safer with its own nuclear weapons arsenal. Leading politicians in South Korea have for years called for considering own nuclear weapons. Pakistani Defense Minister Khawaja Asif said Pakistan could "make available" its nuclear capabilities to partner state Saudi Arabia.

Europe: France, the United Kingdom, and Nuclear Burden-Sharing

In Europe, Sipri observes an expansion of burden-sharing in the nuclear domain. French President Emmanuel Macron had indicated that French nuclear weapons could in future also provide protection for Norway, Lithuania, and Poland. "Allein im vergangenen Jahr haben wir die Anfänge einer Ausweitung der Partnerschaft zur Lastenteilung im Nuklearbereich beobachtet, an der Frankreich, das Vereinigte Königreich und mehrere andere Länder, darunter Deutschland, beteiligt sind", said Matt Korda. The aim is to close the gap that has existed since Brexit, since France is the only nuclear power within the EU.

Sipri also pointed out that, in the absence of corresponding treaties, the nuclear powers are increasingly refraining from disclosing important details of their nuclear capabilities. US modernization programs made progress in 2025 but remained burdened by planning and financing problems. The missile defense system "Golden Dome" planned by US President Donald Trump is expected to cost around 1.2 trillion US dollars over the next 20 years.

Attacks by the United States and Israel on Iranian nuclear facilities could, according to the report's assessment, strengthen those forces in Iran that want to push forward the construction of an atomic bomb. India and Pakistan continued the expansion of their programs but, following a brief military conflict in May 2025, took measures to de-escalate. The anti-nuclear weapons campaign ICAN, based in Geneva, plans to present its report on the day following the publication of the Sipri yearbook.

The nine nuclear powers — the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel — continued their programs to modernize and expand their nuclear weapons arsenals last year, according to the report. Most of them deployed new nuclear-capable or nuclear-armed weapons systems, the report stated. Sipri sees this as a turning point: the decades-long decline in the number of warheads could rise again in the coming years.

Ukraine had already handed over its nuclear weapons to Russia in 1996 — today, according to the report, the arms control structures that once contained the nuclear threat have largely disappeared. The Sipri report was broadcast on 8 June 2026 on Deutschlandfun