Pakistan announces agreement on peace text between US and Iran

The negotiations had been conducted in the Pakistani capital Islamabad, which had already been the venue of earlier talks between the conflicting parties in April. Iran and the US had begun the war on February 28, after the US and Israel had jointly taken military action against the Islamic Republic. A ceasefire has been in place since early April, but has been repeatedly broken by mutual attacks, such as Iranian drone strikes on US bases in Bahrain, Jordan, and Kuwait.

Content of the framework agreement

According to insiders, Iranian and US negotiators agreed that enriched uranium in Iran would first be rendered harmless on site and then removed from the country. A senior US government official said the agreement provides that "die Vereinigten Staaten das angereicherte Material erhalten. Wir treffen eine Vereinbarung, dass dieses Material vor Ort vernichtet und anschließend aus dem Land gebracht wird." The US side describes the agreement as "leistungsbasiert" – meaning Iranian assets abroad would only be released once Tehran has delivered its reciprocal performance.

According to matching reports, the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most important shipping routes for global oil, gas, and fertilizer trade, is to be fully reopened within 30 days. In return, the US blockade of Iranian ports would be lifted. The Iranian news agency Fars reported that, in exchange, sanctions on Iranian oil exports would be lifted and frozen funds in the billions would be released. US President Donald Trump, however, rejected this characterization: the leaked information did not correspond to what had been agreed in writing, he wrote on Truth Social.

The Swiss government confirmed that it is in close contact with the United States and Iran. Switzerland has offered to serve as the location for the signing of the agreement; Geneva is considered by a Western insider to be the most likely venue for the ceremony. It is anticipated that US Vice President JD Vance and Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf will sign the document. A corresponding report by the portal Axios about an upcoming trip by Vance to Geneva remains unconfirmed, however.

Reactions from Tehran and Washington

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi likewise confirmed late on Friday evening that the "Absichtserklärung von Islamabad noch nie so kurz vor dem Abschluss" had stood. Both parties had "nie näher" been to an agreement. At the same time, he called on the media to refrain from speculation about the contents of the memorandum until it had been definitively finalized. "In line with our responsible and transparent approach, all details will be shared with the public in due course", Araghchi wrote on the English-language version of his X account.

The US government official estimated the probability of the deal coming about at "80 to 85 percent" and explicitly not at 100 percent. It has not yet been definitively decided whether a framework agreement will actually be signed. At the same time, he said a large part of the Iranian leadership favors an agreement, "aber nicht alle".

Israel's position and domestic political tensions

In Iran, opposition to the negotiated text is already emerging. The influential fundamentalist Mahmoud Nabavian criticized, according to the online portal Hammihan, that the release of Iranian funds was being tied to the progress of the negotiations. Speaking of a victory in light of this "unklaren und schädlichen Textes" was completely wrong. The Iranian leadership officially insists that it does not seek nuclear weapons; Israel does not share this assessment.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, meanwhile, rejected any participation in the negotiations. His office stated that Israel is in no way involved in the talks on a possible agreement. In a statement, Netanyahu said Iran will not possess nuclear weapons: "Präsident Trump und ich sind uns in dieser Frage vollkommen einig." In Israel, there are fears that Tehran could, after the signing of the framework agreement, drag out further negotiations without substantive concessions on the nuclear issue.

The US news portal Axios assessed the agreement between Trump and Tehran as a "bitter pill" for Netanyahu. His domestic political rivals could accuse him of making Israel a "Vasallenstaat" by accepting Trump's terms. Netanyahu faces elections in four months. Meanwhile, tensions in the region remained high: on Saturday, the US military said it shot down Iranian drones over the Strait of Hormuz, while merchant ships in the strait were attacked.

Lebanon, Gulf states, and the security situation

In addition to the nuclear issue and the opening of the strait, the situation in Lebanon is among the contentious points in the negotiations. Iran is making a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, the release of frozen foreign assets, and the lifting of sanctions conditions for an agreement. According to the Iranian agency Mehr, the agreement provides to "alle Kampfhandlungen unverzüglich zu stoppen – auch im Libanon". The Israeli military, however, reported several drone attacks by Hezbollah on northern Israel since Friday evening. On Saturday, Israel ordered the evacuation of 20 locations in southern Lebanon.

The United Arab Emirates also played a role in the negotiations. According to information from Reuters, the UAE promised Iran total payments of ten to 20 billion US dollars in connection with Iranian attacks on the Gulf state and has already released more than three billion dollars to prevent further attacks. These pledges were not initially confirmed in Abu Dhabi on Saturday. Qatar, for its part, said it had reached a bilateral agreement with Tehran to halt attacks on Qatari liquefied gas facilities.

According to information from Islamabad, Pakistan is preparing for the electronic signing of the peace agreement immediately after its finalization. Definitive completion is expected within the next 24 hours. Talks at the technical level are also planned for the coming week. According to Fars, a solution to the Iranian nuclear dispute is to be reached within 60 days; however, negotiations on the Iranian nuclear program are planned for a later date, as the news agency Mehr reported.

Outlook: Signing in Geneva?

Trump had raised hopes of a breakthrough on Thursday, stating that the documents for an initial framework agreement would be finalized shortly and possibly signed in Europe over the weekend. On Friday night, he wrote on Truth Social that the talks with Iran had "Frucht getragen", and announced that planned attacks against Iran had been canceled because the discussions had made progress. Later, he accused Tehran of spreading "Falschinformationen" about possible arrangements. According to various counts, Trump has made roughly 30 public statements on the Iran situation since the start of the war.

Vice President JD Vance dismissed reports of a direct cash payment to Iran as "Fake News". Iran will not receive money, "erst wenn er gewisse Gegenleistungen erbringe". Trump simultaneously threatened that those spreading such information should "besser zusammenreißen – und zwar SCHNELL!". Trump described some of the conditions outlined by Western, Pakistani, and Iranian insiders on Friday as false, since they would favor Tehran.

The US and Iran have been considered arch-enemies since the 1979 revolution. Negotiations on the last major agreement with Iran, the nuclear deal concluded in Vienna in 2015 and later abandoned by Trump, had lasted almost two years. Observers therefore assess the current diplomatic initiative as a remarkable rapprochement – even though key points of contention remain open and the agreement has so far not been officially confirmed by both parties to the conflict.

From Washington and Tehran, there was initially no direct confirmation on Friday of the Pakistani claims. It was not until late in the evening that the Iranian foreign minister responded with the statement that the agreement was "so nah wie nie zuvor" to being concluded. The publication of his post was picked up and shared by Trump. This increased indications that a preliminary agreement and signing between Iran and the US could indeed be imminent.