Right-Wing Outsider Leads Colombia Presidential Vote as Incumbent Questions Results

Because neither candidate achieved an absolute majority, a runoff election is scheduled for June 21. The three-week campaign period is expected to be fiercely contested, with the conservative camp already consolidating behind de la Espriella after Senator Paloma Valencia, who received about 6.5 percent, endorsed him immediately following her defeat.

President Petro, Colombia's first left-wing president elected in 2022, was constitutionally barred from seeking re-election. On the online platform X, he stated he does not recognize the preliminary vote count and will await the final result verified by judges, citing 'irregularities' related to the vote-counting software and the voter registry.

Petro's Mixed Legacy

The election was overshadowed by a significant deterioration in security. Kristin Wesemann, head of the Colombia office of the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung, described the situation as 'one of the worst waves of violence in recent years.' She noted that armed groups have expanded in many regions and that 67 percent of all municipalities are exposed to illegal networks and groups.

In the run-up to the vote, a series of attacks killed or injured several civilians, soldiers, and police officers. In June of last year, conservative Senator Miguel Uribe Turbay was shot at a campaign event in Bogotá and later died from his injuries. According to a report by the International Committee of the Red Cross, Colombia experienced the worst humanitarian consequences of armed conflicts in a decade in the previous year, with more than 235,000 people displaced.

Petro took office in 2022 with a promise of 'total peace,' seeking to curb decades of violence through negotiations with armed groups. However, a decisive breakthrough was not achieved, and the security situation deteriorated markedly. Wesemann stated that state security structures are 'extremely weakened.'

Despite the security failures, Petro's term saw notable social and economic gains. According to an analysis by the US think tank Center for Economic and Policy Research, social spending increased significantly, the minimum wage rose by 75 percent, and the poverty rate fell noticeably since 2022. Unemployment also declined during his four-year term.

The Contenders

Nevertheless, several reform projects under Petro failed in Congress or were delayed, and his government faced criticism over numerous ministerial changes and publicly aired internal conflicts. His relationship with US President Donald Trump is considered strained, among other reasons due to disputes over migration, deportations, and drug policy.

De la Espriella, known by the nickname 'El Tigre,' campaigned on a promise of uncompromising action against guerrilla organizations and organized crime. He has proposed building a dozen prisons in the Amazon and bombing narco-camps, including those located in neighboring countries. His style and appearance — featuring a military salute, trimmed full beard, baseball cap, and sunglasses — are often compared to those of El Salvador's President Nayib Bukele.

De la Espriella also presents himself as a supporter of Donald Trump and advocates for a leaner state. He warned that his opponent would continue Petro's much-criticized economic policies, including a ban on new oil projects.

Cepeda, who led in polls before the election, built his reputation as a determined opponent of paramilitarism, corruption, and political violence. He was one of the main drivers of the legal case against former President Álvaro Uribe, who was sentenced to twelve years in prison last year. Cepeda enjoys strong support among poor population segments and in the Pacific region, where many Afro-Colombians live and the state is traditionally weakly present.

What Comes Next

Cepeda defends Petro's 'total peace' strategy and plans extensive social reforms, including higher taxes for high earners and land allocations for victims of the decades-long internal conflict. However, increasing violence by armed groups and the widely perceived failure of the peace strategy are cited as reasons for his poor performance in the first round.

Voter turnout was just over half of the approximately 41 million eligible voters, a relatively low figure that could give both candidates room to mobilize additional supporters ahead of the runoff. Observers fear further tensions and an intensification of political confrontation in the coming weeks.

The election determined the successor to Petro, whose single four-year term under the Colombian constitution now comes to an end. Fourteen candidates initially ran, but polls had long identified Cepeda, de la Espriella, and Valencia as the clear front-runners. Valencia's result is interpreted by observers as a sign of the waning influence of traditional 'Uribismo.'

With the conservative majority now rallying behind de la Espriella, Cepeda may face an uphill battle in the runoff. The political climate, already strained by a swelling wave of violence, is expected to grow even more polarized as the June 21 vote approaches.