Russia fires missiles from Kuril Islands – after Putin's visit to the disputed islands

Diplomatic protest from Tokyo

Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi stated that the islands are 'sowohl historisch als auch völkerrechtlich ein fester Bestandteil des japanischen Staatsgebiets'. Putin's visit will have 'äußerst negative Auswirkungen auf die japanisch-russischen Beziehungen'. Tokyo summoned the Russian ambassador and called him in for a formal complaint.

Relations between Japan and Russia have deteriorated further since the start of the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine in February 2022. Tokyo is among the states that have imposed sanctions on Moscow over the attack. A resumption of negotiations on a peace treaty, which had most recently been on hold, is now moving further out of reach.

Kuril conflict since 1945

The Kuril Islands have been a central point of contention in relations between the two neighbors since the Second World War. After Japan's defeat in 1945, the Soviet Union occupied the southern islands; a bilateral agreement on their return was never signed in the period that followed. Even after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the status remained disputed.

Militarily, the region is gaining additional importance because the USA cooperates closely there with Japan and other partners. The Kurils lie geographically between the main Japanese island and the Russian Kamchatka Peninsula and are therefore strategically relevant for the control of the northern Pacific routes.

Military significance for the Pacific

International observers see the missile launch as a signal from Moscow to Tokyo and to the USA. Russia has significantly expanded its military presence on the Kurils in recent years. The current step comes at a time when tensions between Russia and the West are already high because of the Ukraine conflict.

Japan announced that it would discuss the incident closely with allies, including the USA. According to the Foreign Ministry, Tokyo is considering taking the protest further at the international level, for instance at the United Nations. The Japanese government called on Russia to refrain from any measures that endanger peace and security in the region.

Reactions in the Japanese Parliament

In the Japanese public, the incident caused outrage. Opposition politicians spoke of a new level of escalation and demanded a markedly tougher response toward Moscow. From several parliamentary groups came the statement that the government must show that sovereignty over the Northern Territories is not negotiable.

The Russian war of aggression against Ukraine, tightened sanctions, and now the incident on the Kurils suggest that the divide between Tokyo and Moscow will deepen further. Observers assume that the already frozen negotiations on a formal peace treaty between Japan and Russia will not be resumed in the foreseeable future.

Developments on the Kurils are being followed closely internationally because they could have implications for the security situation across the entire North Pacific. Should Russia launch further military actions from the islands, Japan would have to adjust its defense planning, according to government circles in Tokyo.