Russia heads toward second wave of fuel crisis

It remains unclear how large Russia's remaining refinery capacities actually still are. Russian and Western specialists are engaged in a sometimes heated debate over this. Some estimates assume that domestic supply will remain tight for months. Other observers point out that Russia has reserves and imports from Belarus at its disposal to cushion the worst bottlenecks.

Capacities and debate

From the Kremlin, meanwhile, reassuring tones are coming. Spokespersons emphasize that the authorities have the situation under control and that supply will gradually normalize in the coming weeks. Critics, however, accuse the government of playing down the scale of the crisis and downplaying the economic consequences for the population.

Reaction from the Kremlin

Meanwhile, pressure is mounting on Vladimir Putin to present concrete measures to stabilize the market. Demands include a cap on gasoline prices, increased imports, and better coordination between refineries, wholesalers, and petrol stations. Whether such steps can be implemented quickly remains open.

The economic consequences of the crisis are already being felt. Hauliers complain about rising operating costs, farmers fear harvest failures because machinery cannot be refueled, and many citizens have to pay higher prices at the pumps. Some regions have already introduced temporary caps on the sale of fuel.

Economic consequences

If the government does not get the situation under control, analysts also see social tensions looming. Angry drivers have repeatedly complained loudly about empty pumps in the past. Political observers see the crisis as a further burden on the already strained mood in the country.

International observers are watching the developments with concern. Should Russia have to restrict its exports on a permanent basis, this would also have consequences for global energy markets. At the same time, it is considered likely that imports from Belarus and other neighboring states will be expanded at short notice to alleviate the worst bottlenecks.

In the long term, according to specialists, the development depends primarily on whether attacks on Russian energy infrastructure continue and how quickly the refineries can be repaired or replaced. Without a significant easing at the front, many experts expect fuel in Russia to remain scarce and expensive well into next year.