Russia restricts fuel distribution in occupied Luhansk – Crimea already affected

Cause of the shortages

Over the past weekend, temporary fuel rationing was already introduced on the Black Sea peninsula of Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014 in violation of international law. Crimea is of particular importance as a logistical rear for the Russian armed forces in the war against Ukraine, as military bases and supply routes are concentrated there.

Meanwhile, the Russian government reacted with a step unprecedented to date: for the first time, it banned kerosene exports, temporarily until the end of November. Moscow stated the goal was to "ensure stability in the domestic fuel market." In Russia, kerosene is needed for civil aviation, among other things, but also for military purposes.

War against Ukraine and the role of energy infrastructure

According to international observers, the background to the supply shortages is the ongoing Ukrainian attacks on the Russian oil industry for months. Ukraine states its goal is to disrupt the fuel supply to the Russian army and to reduce Moscow's energy revenues – the so-called war chest. According to Reuters, Ukrainian drone attacks have restricted fuel supply from adjacent Russian-controlled areas.

The Russian war of aggression against Ukraine was ordered by Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin more than four years ago. Since then, Ukraine has gradually expanded its counteroffensive, increasingly using drones to strike refineries, fuel depots, and pipelines deep in the Russian rear. The consequences for the civilian population in the occupied territories are immediately noticeable.

The rationing now imposed is an indication that the fuel supply is increasingly coming under pressure, even in the territories controlled by Russia. While the occupation authorities in Luhansk speak of a "temporary" measure, they remain silent on questions of whether and when the limits will be lifted. From the perspective of independent observers, it is to be feared that the situation could further escalate with the continuation of Ukraine's attack wave.

Impact on the civilian population

For the affected civilian population in Luhansk, the 20-liter limits mean significant cuts in daily life. Those who commute to work, school, or shopping by car must plan their routes and journeys carefully. Farmers, taxi drivers, and small transport companies also rely on a functioning fuel supply. On social media, residents report long queues at the few remaining open gas stations.

The measures in Crimea had already led to panic buying and hoarding over the weekend, as local observers reported. There, too, initially only 20 liters per person were allowed; the authorities tried to control distribution through vouchers and ID checks. Comparable systems are now apparently also being prepared in Luhansk.

International organizations dealing with the supply situation in the occupied territories view the developments with concern. The United Nations and humanitarian aid organizations have been pointing out for months that the civilian population is suffering particularly from the consequences of the war and restricted logistics. However, concrete aid deliveries to areas directly controlled by Russia are made difficult by the occupation conditions.

International reactions and market impacts

The Russian leadership faces a political dilemma: on the one hand, it is trying to ensure the supply of its own population and armed forces; on the other hand, Ukrainian attacks on the oil industry are reducing precisely those revenues with which the war is financed. The kerosene export ban now imposed is a sign that Moscow is increasingly prioritizing its own supply.

The Ukrainian General Staff stated that the attacks on Russian energy infrastructure are part of a long-term strategy. They will maintain pressure "as long as necessary." At the same time, concern is growing in Western capitals that an escalation of the fuel crisis in Russia could also indirectly affect global energy markets.

Outlook

Energy market experts point out that Russia continues to export significant amounts of oil despite the attacks – primarily to Asia. However, the declining availability of certain refined products such as kerosene could influence prices on world markets in the medium term. For consumers in Europe, the immediate effects have so far been limited, as Russia has hardly supplied any significant quantities of petroleum products to the EU since the attack on Ukraine.

In the coming weeks, it will become clear whether the rationing in Luhansk and Crimea is indeed only temporary or whether it will be extended. If the Ukrainian attack wave continues, military analysts expect that the Russian authorities will further lower the limits or restrict the circle of eligible persons. The people in the occupied territories are likely to be the ones suffering from this development.