SpaceX shares fall below IPO price of $135 for first time

A Reuters analysis of 50 IPOs since 2010 found that the shares of 21 of these highly valued companies slipped below their IPO price within two months of their initial listing. While they have mostly returned to positive territory since then, their average price gains of 61 percent are only about half those of the remaining 29 listings.

Historical comparison and analyst voices

"Post-IPO price swings are normal," emphasizes Falcon expert Shahin. Gabriel Shahin, chief of investment advisor Falcon, describes this as a "normal, if painful" development. Greg Halter, chief analyst at investment advisor Carnegie, says: "Nobody wants an IPO to flop or the offering price to be pushed down." He assumes that companies would rather pull back than accommodate potential investors on price.

Matthew Maley, chief market strategist at asset manager Miller Tabak, says: This fuels the thesis that the stock's price rise is based on speculation and overheating rather than genuine fundamentals. At the IPO, Musk had reserved an unusually high 30 percent of the offering volume for retail investors, in order to honor the support of his fans.

Fundamentals and valuation

Most recently, SpaceX generated revenue of approximately $18.7 billion, an increase of roughly one-third compared to the previous year, while posting an annual loss of just under $5 billion. The group posted a loss of around $5 billion (€4.38 billion) last year. Its price stands at 49 times revenue per share, while electric car maker Tesla — also part of billionaire Musk's corporate empire — only posts a price-to-sales ratio of 15.

Despite the price weakness, a large portion of Wall Street firms continues to rate the stock positively. Deutsche Bank AG issued a Buy rating on 07/14/26, Bernstein Research rated it "Outperform" on 07/13/26, and JP Morgan Chase & Co. issued an "Overweight" rating on 07/07/26. According to its own trade disclosure, ARK Invest, led by Cathie Wood, increased its SpaceX holdings across several funds by roughly 122,800 shares, an investment in the low double-digit million range.

Outlook: Quarterly report and AI sector

Should Musk chart a clear path to profitability, SpaceX shares could resume their rally, says Maria Llerena, chief analyst at asset manager Domini. Shares of Facebook parent Meta also temporarily went into reverse after their initial listing in May 2012. Shares of chipmaker Cerebras developed similarly after their dazzling debut in May.

ChatGPT developer OpenAI has already filed a confidential application for listing on the US tech exchange Nasdaq. For Ryan Lee, manager at financial services provider Direxion, the price performance of SpaceX plays no role in these decisions: "If I were OpenAI or Anthropic and needed capital for the arms race to develop AI models, I would try to beat the other to it."

The next major test for Musk and his ability to keep investors on board are the quarterly results expected in early August. The next solid data point is likely to be the quarterly report announced for August, which will for the first time provide insight into whether SpaceX can rein in its losses. However, analysts say the long-term substance from rocket launches, Starlink and the newer AI activities remains intact.

The article was written by Benedict Kurschat of the finanzen.net editorial team.