Study: List prices for electric cars down 18 percent in inflation-adjusted terms since 2020

Methodology: Comparable models over time

To enable a fair comparison, the researchers compared the same or comparable vehicles over time. Patrick Plötz, a professor at ISI, explained the methodological approach: „Man würde also Kirschen mit Äpfeln vergleichen. Um das zu verhindern, haben wir versucht, gleiche oder vergleichbare Fahrzeuge über die Zeit zu betrachten." Using this method, list prices for electric cars remained relatively stable, while prices for combustion-engine vehicles rose.

Peter Mock of the ICCT pointed to the technical development of the vehicles: „Unsere Ergebnisse zeigen, dass sich der Markt für Elektroautos in den vergangenen Jahren deutlich weiterentwickelt hat. Die Fahrzeuge bieten heute im Durchschnitt größere Reichweiten und mehr Motorleistung, während die realen Preise vergleichbarer Modelle gesunken sind."

Outlook: Price parity expected by 2030

Plötz sees further potential for falling prices. „Die gesunkenen Batteriepreise sind noch nicht vollständig weitergegeben worden. Außerdem sollten auch steigende Stückzahlen und der Druck auf die Hersteller durch CO2-Grenzwerte helfen", he said. The growing range of offerings is also changing the picture: „Der mittlere Preis ist dadurch gestiegen, es sind aber auch ganz andere Fahrzeuge", said Plötz.

If the current trend continues, electric cars in Europe should cost about the same as comparable combustion-engine vehicles by around 2030, said Plötz. At price parity, electric cars would then also be clearly cheaper in terms of total cost per kilometer. Experience from other markets has shown that at equal prices, electric cars would reach a market share of around 50 percent.

Industry context and assessments

The study fits into a broader discussion about price trends in the automotive sector. Industry observers such as Ferdinand Dudenhöffer had identified rising discounts on key e-car models in recent years. This trend broadly aligns with the findings of the Fraunhofer and ICCT researchers.

The results are likely to be relevant for investors and manufacturers as well. For example, RBC Capital Markets rated Volkswagen's preferred stock "Outperform" on July 14, 2026. The valuation followed the assessment that the financial framework conditions for electromobility and established manufacturers could continue to remain favorable.

Overall, the study paints a picture of a market in transition: falling battery costs, stricter CO2 requirements and a growing model range are ensuring that electric cars become increasingly affordable for buyers. If the trend line holds, the target year of 2030 for price parity with combustion-engine vehicles could be within reach.