Albany, August 31, 2026

US researchers have empirically confirmed the long-known BMI paradox in older adults and shown that waist circumference predicts mortality risk in this age group more accurately than the body mass index.

What the BMI paradox describes

The body mass index, or BMI, is the most widely used measure worldwide for classifying overweight and obesity. It relates body weight to height. At the population level and across all age groups, it has been well established for decades that a BMI above 30 – i.e., obesity – is associated with an increased risk of death, particularly due to cardiovascular disease.

In older adults, however, the picture is strikingly different. Numerous studies in recent years have shown that overweight or mildly obese seniors in some analyses even have lower mortality than their normal-weight peers. This phenomenon has been discussed in the literature as the "obesity paradox" or BMI paradox.