Swiss Population Growth Slows as Migration Declines, 10-Million Mark Pushed Back

Migration and Demographic Drivers

Net migration has been declining since 2024 due to economic conditions. From 2035 onward, population growth will be driven exclusively by migration, as deaths will begin to outnumber births.

The foreign-national share of the population has risen by 13 percentage points since 1981, now exceeding 27 percent. In some municipalities, the increase has been dramatic: in Täsch (Valais), the share rose from under 1 percent to 61 percent.

Growth has been uneven across the country. Less densely populated areas saw a 75 percent population increase, while denser areas grew by 67 percent. Centrally located rural communities with fast connections to cities grew by 56 percent.

Sempach in the canton of Lucerne, with direct access to the A2 motorway, saw its population nearly double between 1981 and 2024. Gletterens in the canton of Fribourg grew from 200 to nearly 1,200 residents, almost a sixfold increase.

Winners and Losers: Regional Disparities

In contrast, small, peripheral mountain communities have lost population. Zwischbergen, south of the Simplon Pass, lost 60 percent of its residents, while Realp at the foot of the Furka Pass lost 40 percent.

Major cities grew more modestly: Zurich added around 71,000 residents, a 19 percent increase, while Lausanne grew by 15 percent.

The age structure is also shifting. The proportion of people over 64 is increasing, while the working-age population is not. Over the next 30 years, the top of the age pyramid will widen, while its base remains largely unchanged.

Future Outlook and Uncertainty

Cantonal projections vary significantly. St. Gallen, Vaud, Geneva, Thurgau, and Aargau are expected to see population increases of 20 percent by 2055. Jura, Neuchâtel, Schaffhausen, and Appenzell Ausserrhoden are projected to grow by less than 2 percent.

The FSO emphasizes that reaching 10 million is not certain. The low scenario assumes the population will rise to about 9.3 million and then gradually decline.