Tank Discount Balance Sheet: Monopolies Commission Estimates Unpassed Savings at 100 to 200 Million Euros

In eastern Germany, the price reduction at the pumps amounted to 16.0 to 16.4 cents per liter, falling only slightly short of the full tax relief. In southern Germany, by contrast, the pass-through was only 13.3 to 14.9 cents per liter – a significantly larger gap that the Monopolies Commission attributes to structural deficits in competition. The authority bases its analysis on a comparison of fuel prices in Germany and France, emphasizing that the gap is conservatively estimated and could in fact be even larger.

That the price reduction at the gas station did not correspond in full to the tax relief had in principle also been expected by economists. Florian Neumeier of the Ifo Institute explained that part of the 1.6 billion euros ended up with the oil companies. „Ein Teil der 1,6 Milliarden Euro, die der Tankrabatt den Staat gekostet hat, ist also bei den Mineralölkonzernen gelandet. Der Staat kann keine Preise diktieren und somit ist die Weitergabe einer solchen Maßnahme eben nicht gesichert“, sagte er.

Ifo Expert: Oil Companies Profited

The Monopolies Commission sees the incomplete and regionally uneven pass-through not as a phenomenon arising at the pump, but as a symptom of insufficient competition at the upstream stage – that is, at refineries and in wholesale. It also points to further drawbacks of the measure: the tank discount is expensive, disproportionately benefits frequent drivers and high-consumption vehicles, and dampens the price signal that should otherwise have encouraged more economical consumption amid war-related oil scarcity.

According to the Monopolies Commission's calculations, between 15 and 16 cents of the 16.7 cents per liter tax relief reached consumers, depending on fuel type. The Munich-based Ifo Institute likewise assumes incomplete pass-through, particularly pronounced for diesel. The industry explicitly does not share this assessment.

The industry association en2x rejected the criticism and stressed that the tax cut is being passed on to customers in full. „Die Steuersenkung wird in vollem Umfang an die Kundschaft weitergegeben. Wir haben vor, während und auch nach dem Tankrabatt einen intensiven Preiswettbewerb unter den 14.000 Tankstellen in Deutschland“, erklärte der Verband. Without the tank discount, according to this representation, gasoline and diesel would have been 17 cents per liter higher at all times in May and June. „Gäbe es den Tankrabatt nicht, wären Benzin und Diesel im Mai und Juni zu jedem Zeitpunkt um 17 Cent je Liter höher“, hieß es.

Industry Association en2x Rejects Criticism

At the same time, en2x criticized that the mineral oil industry evidently stands under particular scrutiny due to political emotion rather than facts. „Dass wir offenbar eher aufgrund politischer Emotionen als aufgrund von Fakten unter besonderer Beobachtung stehen, nehmen wir zur Kenntnis und begegnen mit voller Transparenz. Wir stehen den zuständigen Behörden Rede und Antwort“, sagte der Verband.

Regardless of this controversy, fuel prices have continued to move downward in recent days. On Monday, the nationwide daily average price for a liter of diesel fell by 1.3 cents to 1.816 euros according to ADAC data – the seventh consecutive price decline. Super E10 dropped by 0.9 cents on Monday to 1.868 euros. On Tuesday morning at 8:45 a.m., a liter of E10 cost 1.826 euros on the national average, 1.6 cents less than 24 hours earlier. Diesel stood at 1.764 euros per liter at the same time, down 2.1 cents from the previous day.

Current Price Developments at the Pumps

Prices had risen significantly in the weeks after the outbreak of war: at the height of the crisis, diesel was more than 70 cents per liter more expensive than before the war, and E10 more than 40 cents. As recently as mid-May, E10 and Super had at times still been close to 2 euros per liter. Currently, diesel is still 7 cents above the last level before the war, and E10 even 9 cents above. For a 50-liter tank fill, this corresponds to additional costs of 3.50 euros for diesel and 4.50 euros for E10 compared to pre-war levels.

With the end of the tank discount in two weeks, this gap to pre-war levels is expected to widen noticeably again, according to observers. Added to this is a fundamental rule of behavior for consumers: ADAC points out that, according to the so-called 12 o'clock rule, fuel tends to be cheaper in the morning and late morning.

Both institutes, the Monopolies Commission and the Ifo Institute, expressly welcomed the end of the tank discount at the end of the month. They see the measure primarily as an instrument whose effect was weakened by incomplete pass-through and windfall effects. Industry insiders point out, however, that developments on the world market have also played a role: a recently reached agreement between the USA and Iran is expected to relieve the oil market, with initial effects on oil and fuel prices already visible.

Geopolitical Easing and Outlook

The debate over the tank discount thus comes at a time of falling prices at the pumps that is not solely attributable to the expiration of the tax relief. Whether the decline in crude oil prices and the geopolitical easing can compensate for the missing pass-through from the relief phase remains to be seen. Consumers will be watching closely in the coming weeks to see how price levels develop relative to pre-war levels.

What is certain is that the Monopolies Commission has, with its analysis, provided a quantitative basis against which the political assessment of the tank discount must be measured. The estimated 100 to 200 million euros that did not reach citizens is a sober proof that a government tax cut does not automatically take full effect at the level of end consumers.

Competition at the pump itself is not the focus of the criticism. The Monopolies Commission explicitly locates the problem at the upstream market stage, where refineries and wholesale set the price. This distinction is politically relevant because it directs reforms not at gas stations, but at market regulation and competition policy.

What remains is a warning to consumers not to lose sight of the fact that, amid falling prices, the tank discount fell clearly short of what it was originally meant to achieve. The combination of incomplete pass-through, regional differences, and windfall effects benefiting the oil industry has devalued the instrument – and is likely to fuel the search for more effective relief mechanisms in future crises.

One final aspect that often gets lost in public debate: the tank discount was introduced with the aim of relieving citizens during a period of high energy prices. The fact that part of this relief seeped away is not only a fiscal finding, but also a distributive political one.

The coming weeks will show whether the recent agreement between the USA and Iran will sustainably ease the oil market and bring prices permanently closer to pre-war levels – or whether consumers will ultimately pay more than the original relief measure ever managed to deliver.