Trump: "Good Chance" for Iran Deal – Tensions Persist

However, Trump also directed a threat at Tehran: if the efforts fail, the US would "go back to what we were doing two days ago." He also stressed that he was giving the negotiations "not much time," as he said in an interview with Axios. Trump said aboard Air Force One: "We have a lot of ammunition, different types of it. It's 'more than we could ever use.'" The US president also explained that the pauses in fighting since Friday had come about on the advice of mediating states.

Tehran Pushes Back

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei sharply contradicted Trump's account on Monday. "We are, however, currently not engaged in any negotiations with the United States," Baghaei stated. He called reports of allegedly new talks requested by Iran with the US "fabrications that the other side circulates from time to time." He did, however, concede: "Mediators may convey messages from the American side to us that relate to current developments in the region."

Trump had said as recently as Sunday: "They have asked for a meeting." The Iranian government declared over the weekend that it had halted its "retaliatory" attacks and had made progress in talks with Oman on the administration of the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran wants ships to pass through Iranian territorial waters and pay a fee for doing so. According to Iranian state media, Iranian forces stopped six additional ships overnight into Monday.

The negotiations, in which Qatar and Pakistan are participating as mediators, concern — according to Pakistani security circles — the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the resumption of talks on Iran's nuclear program. According to these circles, the Iranian leadership is seeking a permanent ceasefire and rejecting a limited one.

Concern Within the US Government

The Strait of Hormuz remains "closed" according to Iran's account. In recent weeks, two ships were reportedly boarded and two others taken out of service, according to reports. The US military also imposed its own blockade, which — according to the responsible US military command — forced 17 ships to turn around. Prior to the start of talks, Oman had stated that ships could also pass through Omani waters, which angered Tehran. According to Baghaei, the US is not involved in the Iranian-Omani talks on the Strait of Hormuz — it is a "bilateral matter."

Within the US government, there are concerns about further escalation, according to CNN reports. Vice President JD Vance and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Caine reportedly expressed worry about an expansion of the Iran conflict at a meeting. Another point was the fear of civilian casualties among the Iranian population from further attacks. According to informed individuals, Caine and other participants also pointed to shrinking US ammunition stockpiles, particularly air defense munitions such as Patriot missiles. In this context, Trump had pointed out that his predecessor Joe Biden had delivered ammunition including Patriot missiles to Ukraine for defense against Russian aggression. Trump also stated that stockpiles were being expanded.

Escalation in Saudi Arabia

The situation in Saudi Arabia escalated further on Monday. The Defense Ministry in Riyadh reported the interception and destruction of multiple drones launched from Iraq at oil facilities in the east of the country and in the capital, Riyadh. The ministry blamed Iranian-backed militias and reserved the right to retaliate. Meanwhile, Houthi rebels in Yemen reported new drone attacks on "sensitive junctions" for Saudi Arabian oil transport to Yanbu on the Red Sea.

The coalition of Shia militias known for its pro-Iran orientation, called "Islamic Resistance in Iraq," rejected the accusations. The group described the allegations as "fabrications" and stated that Riyadh wanted to use the accusations to justify its inability to respond to the "painful Yemeni attacks" by the Shia Houthis. The group threatened a "harsh" response in the event of Saudi measures in Iraq. The Iraqi head of government ordered an investigation of Saudi Arabia's accusations.

The latest confrontations threaten to end the ceasefire between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis that had largely held since 2022. Drone attacks were also reported from Jordan and northern Iraq. The internationally recognized government of Yemen declared that it was "prepared for any escalation." Yemen's designated foreign minister, Afrah al-Zouba, reportedly stated that the Houthis were seeking to imitate Iranian actions in the Strait of Hormuz and gain control over the Red Sea.

Netanyahu Visit to Washington

Against the backdrop of these tensions, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will meet with Trump in Washington on Tuesday. Relations between Netanyahu and Trump had recently cooled due to differing views on the Iran war. Well-informed circles in Pakistan estimate, based on available Pakistani intelligence findings reported by the German Press Agency, that a limited US ground offensive is becoming increasingly likely.

The news from the Middle East triggered significant movements in financial markets. The price of North Sea Brent crude fell by around six percent on Monday to approximately $86 per barrel. Market participants reacted to hopes that the conflict between Washington and Tehran could still be resolved diplomatically.

Diplomacy on the Brink of Escalation

Trump had repeatedly threatened in recent months to attack civilian infrastructure such as bridges, roads, and power plants. On Monday, he reaffirmed that Tehran was currently speaking with Washington about a deal. At the same time, he stressed that Iran's willingness to talk was a sign that US strength was working. Whether the pauses in fighting will last remains uncertain in light of the multitude of new incidents in the region.

Behind the scenes, concern about further escalation is growing. The combination of Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz, ongoing drone attacks from Iraq, a looming ground offensive, and a fragile ceasefire between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis makes any negotiated solution particularly vulnerable. The role of the US in the parallel negotiations between Iran and Oman also remains unclear.

For Trump, who styles himself as a tough negotiator, what matters is whether the announced talks actually materialize — or whether the US really does have to return to the attacks "from two days ago." The coming days, with the meeting with Netanyahu in Washington, are likely to determine which direction the crisis takes.