Tyrol Poll: ÖVP and FPÖ Neck and Neck, Black-Blue Coalition Conceivable

Mattle already declared last year that he intended to run again as lead candidate: „Bereits im Vorjahr legte sich Mattle fest, dass er erneut als Spitzenkandidat antreten wolle." The ÖVP itself had recently rejected speculation about moving the election forward. „In Tirol wird plangemäß im Herbst 2027 gewählt," it said on the matter.

Confirmation of the Election Date

The newly elected ÖVP state parliament president Jakob Wolf confirmed the election date to the „Tiroler Tageszeitung" (Monday edition): „Landeshauptmann Mattle und ich sind uns einig, dass die Wahl im Herbst 2027 stattfinden wird." Mattle himself had also emphasized in an APA interview at the end of 2025 that the state election would definitely take place in autumn 2027.

Behind the two front-runners, the SPÖ follows at 12 percent, well below its 2022 result of 17.48 percent. The Greens would gain slightly at 11 percent — up from 9.20 percent in the last election. Liste Fritz remains unchanged at 9 percent (2022: 9.90 percent). The KPÖ, which is currently not represented in the state parliament, would miss entry with 3 percent.

Foresight managing director Christoph Hofinger pointed out that the numbers are not yet set in stone: „Es könne sich noch viel verändern, meinte Foresight-Geschäftsführer Christoph Hofinger, schließlich würden sich rund ein Drittel der Wähler erst im kommenden Jahr entscheiden." Roughly one third of those surveyed indicated that they currently have no party preference.

Coalition Preferences and Assessment

In terms of coalition preferences, a black-blue alliance of ÖVP and FPÖ leads with 14 percent. The current constellation of ÖVP and SPÖ follows with 11 percent. Hofinger sees this as confirmation of the variety of conceivable alliances: „Die Umfrage zeige aber auch, dass es sehr viele Koalitionsvarianten gebe, die sich die Tiroler Bevölkerung vorstellen könne, so Hofinger." He added with a view to the federal trend: „Derzeit schlage sich aber offenbar der für die FPÖ günstige Bundestrend auch in Tirol durch."

The ÖVP has provided Tyrol's state governor without interruption since 1945. „Zählt man Karl Gruber, den für wenige Monate in einer provisorischen Landesregierung gleich nach Kriegsende amtierenden Landeshauptmann mit, stellten die Schwarzen alle zehn Landeshauptleute seither," the survey states. Also connected with this is the fact that all Tyrolean state chiefs since 1945 have been men: „Ausschließlich Männer übrigens."

Historical Context: ÖVP Rule Since 1945

The starting situation is reminiscent of the 2022 state election, when the ÖVP suffered a decline of 9.6 percentage points compared to 2018, falling to just 34.7 percent of the vote. Mattle has governed with the SPÖ ever since. In most other federal states — Lower and Upper Austria, Salzburg, and Vorarlberg — black-blue coalitions already govern, and in Styria there has been a blue-black government since 2024. „Nur in Kärnten dominieren die Parteien ebenfalls, da aber unter einem SPÖ-Landeshauptmann (Daniel Fellner) mit einem ÖVP-Vize (Martin Gruber)."

The ÖVP had already lost its absolute majority in the Tyrolean state parliament in 2003. The last Tyrolean state election took place on September 25, 2022. The current Foresight survey was conducted by telephone and online between June 11 and July 6, with around 800 eligible voters surveyed. No question was asked about a possible independent list by former SPÖ state chief and former deputy state chief Georg Dornauer, who now sits in the state parliament as an independent member. His successor after Georg Dornauer's departure is now Philip Wohlgemuth.

Outlook for 2027

Mattle himself apparently sees no reason for a change of course in the state, and internally the date also appears fixed. According to Hofinger, the question of whether there will actually be a change of power in 2027 depends not least on those Tyroleans who are currently undecided. „Geht es nach einer aktuellen Umfrage, könnte es 2027 auch in Tirol bald zu einem Machtwechsel kommen," the survey states — provided the FPÖ can maintain its federal trend and the ÖVP continues to lose ground.

Overall, the poll paints a picture of a political contest in which the People's Party, which has dominated for decades, is for the first time in a long while tying with a right-wing party. Should the result be confirmed in the 2027 election, Tyrol would be ripe for a black-blue coalition along the lines of several other federal states.