UN report warns: Exceeding the 1.5-degree limit must be kept as brief as possible

Demands on international politics

António Guterres endorsed the warnings and called on governments, business and civil society to act together. He recalled that the industrialized countries of the past decades bear the greatest share of responsibility for historical emissions. At the same time, he emphasized that developing and emerging countries must be financially and technically supported in the transition to clean energy.

The report explicitly warns of so-called tipping points, beyond which climate changes are no longer reversible. Scientists count among these the loss of the West Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets, the dieback of the Amazon rainforest, and a destabilization of the Atlantic overturning circulation, which keeps large parts of Europe mild. The acidification of the oceans and the mass die-off of corals are also cited as risks.

The authors explicitly point to current extreme weather events, including the deadly floods in Nepal, which were triggered by the breaking loose of a Himalayan glacier. Such events show that the consequences of climate change are already visible today and could become more frequent in the future. A spokesperson for the report said: "Leider müssen wir mit mehr solcher Ereignisse rechnen, und genau deshalb müssen wir die maximale Erwärmung begrenzen."

Looking ahead to the next climate conference

In addition to the ecological risks, the report also addresses social and economic consequences. These include rising food insecurity, increasing migration and higher health risks, particularly in poverty-affected regions. Women, children and older people are disproportionately affected worldwide by heatwaves, floods and droughts.

The report formulates a series of recommendations to the international community. These include the significantly accelerated expansion of renewable energies, an end to government subsidies for fossil fuels, extensive investments in climate adaptation, and a reform of the international financial architecture. The establishment of binding reporting obligations on greenhouse gas emissions is also suggested.

The publication comes just days before the next international climate conference and is explicitly directed at the G20 states, which, according to the report, bear the greatest responsibility for reducing global emissions. Several governments have recently announced that they will tighten their climate targets, while others continue to rely on fossil fuels.

Scientists emphasize that the coming years will be decisive. Even a merely temporary exceedance of the 1.5-degree mark can have long-term consequences, as some tipping points are already triggered once the threshold is crossed. The report therefore calls for a global "climate protection offensive" that involves all sectors and levels.

UNEP announced that it will continue to monitor the progress of individual states in the coming months. The next comprehensive stocktake of global emissions is planned for early 2027.

The University of Fiji, which has provided scientific support for the report, sees the new findings as a wake-up call. Research institutions worldwide are called upon to share their data on climate developments even more closely in order to better inform political decisions.