UniCredit raises profit targets and advances Commerzbank takeover
Milan, 23 July 2026
Daniel Case / Wikimedia Commons / CC BY-SA 3.0
Summary
The Italian major bank UniCredit, in the midst of the takeover battle for Commerzbank, has raised its profit targets and simultaneously announced the next step toward gaining control. The stock came under pressure, while Commerzbank's board, workforce, and the German federal government continue to reject the takeover.
Milan, 23 July 2026
The Italian major bank UniCredit raised its profit targets for 2026 and 2030 in Milan on Thursday and simultaneously announced the next step toward the takeover of Commerzbank.
UniCredit CEO Andrea Orcel presented the half-year figures in Milan and also raised the institution's profitability targets. For the current year 2026, UniCredit now expects "deutlich" more than eleven billion euros in net profit, the company announced. In the current year, the surplus is to rise to "deutlich" more than 11 billion euros. In addition, the net result target for 2030 was raised to "significantly" above 15 billion euros.
In the second quarter, UniCredit's net profit fell 13.1 percent year-on-year to 2.9 billion euros. The result was thus around ten percent below the previous year's figure, but exceeded analyst expectations. JPMorgan analyst Delphine Lee spoke of a "soliden" result in an initial assessment on Thursday. The Italian major bank's costs were in line with expectations. JPMorgan reaffirmed its Overweight rating with a price target of 93 euros.
Quarterly figures exceed expectations
For the first half of the year, UniCredit reported a record net profit of 6.1 billion euros. Orcel stated that Commerzbank was evolving from an attractive financial investment into a strategic transaction with substantial industrial value through the implementation of our proven blueprint. UniCredit pointed out that Commerzbank's results had not yet been fully consolidated at one hundred percent.
In parallel, UniCredit is pushing ahead with the takeover of Commerzbank. To achieve this, it will convene an extraordinary general meeting if necessary. Orcel announced that, shortly after receiving regulatory approvals, he would take control of Commerzbank and implement UniCredit's own strategy. Approvals from the supervisors for the takeover offer that expired a few weeks ago could come as early as the fourth quarter.
UniCredit expands Commerzbank stake
Through a voluntary takeover offer by early July, UniCredit had acquired a further approximately 17.6 percent of Commerzbank shares. Together with the newly acquired shares, UniCredit's stake rises arithmetically to 44.37 percent. Before the offer, UniCredit already held 26.77 percent of Commerzbank shares. Via call options, UniCredit also has access to a further 3.22 percent of Commerzbank shares, which could raise the stake to 47.59 percent subject to ECB approval.
The European Central Bank must approve the execution as the supervisory authority. Thus, the ECB must approve the execution. Orcel emphasized at the same time that he wanted to engage constructively with the German federal government, employee representatives, and the leadership of the Polish Commerzbank subsidiary mBank. There should be no problem reaching an agreement that is in the best interests of all parties.
Resistance on the German side
On the German side, the takeover continues to face resistance. The Commerzbank board under the leadership of Bettina Orlopp, the workforce, and the federal government do not welcome the move; the project is considered a hostile takeover. The chairman of the Commerzbank works council, Sascha Uebel, said: Wenn wir Betriebsräte hier als Verhandlungspartner genannt werden, liegt die UniCredit leider falsch. He referred to German corporate law, according to which the board of management is the primary point of contact.
The Federal Republic of Germany, as the second-largest shareholder, still holds twelve percent of Commerzbank. However, it cannot prevent a takeover. The federal government had built up its stake after rescuing the bank in the 2008/2009 financial crisis and, from 2024, had gradually reduced its former blocking minority of 25 percent plus one share.
Markets and analyst voices
On the stock markets, the shares reacted cautiously. On Thursday, UniCredit's stock temporarily lost 2.15 percent in Milan trading to 81.42 euros. Commerzbank shares fell 0.70 percent to 38.17 euros. The DAX was unable to hold its gains from the previous day and is once again struggling with the 25,000-point mark. Additional headwinds came from concerns about a further escalation in the Iran war as well as disappointing quarterly figures from US tech giants Alphabet and Tesla.
Analysts remain positive on UniCredit shares. JPMorgan reaffirmed the Overweight rating with a price target of 93 euros. Barclays Capital had rated Commerzbank "Overweight" on 29 May 2026, RBC Capital Markets rated it "Outperform" on 14 July 2026, Deutsche Bank rated it "Buy" on 15 July 2026, and JPMorgan Chase & Co. rated it "Neutral" on 17 July 2026.
With the takeover, Orcel aims to create a European counterweight to the dominant US banking competition, which is also very active in Europe. UniCredit acquired Bank Austria in 2005 and owns the former HypoVereinsbank in Germany. Orcel is thereby picking up on the efforts of his predecessor Alessandro Profumo, who led the institution from 1995 to 2010 and vigorously drove forward the creation of a European banking house.
As part of the takeover, significant staff cuts are expected in order to further reduce costs. UniCredit had most recently secured just under half of Commerzbank's shares via an exchange offer. Orcel is seeking discussions with all parties involved in order to consolidate control over the Frankfurt-based Commerzbank.
Questions & Answers
Who is Andrea Orcel and what role does he play in the Commerzbank takeover?
Andrea Orcel is the CEO of the Italian major bank UniCredit and is driving forward the takeover of Commerzbank. He announced that, if necessary, an extraordinary general meeting would be convened to gain control of Commerzbank.
What is UniCredit's current stake in Commerzbank?
After the voluntary takeover offer by early July, UniCredit's stake rose arithmetically to 44.37 percent. Via call options, the stake could rise to 47.59 percent subject to ECB approval.
Why do the Commerzbank board, workforce, and German federal government reject the takeover?
The Commerzbank board under Bettina Orlopp, the employee representatives, and the German federal government do not welcome the move; the project is considered a hostile takeover. The Federal Republic, as the second-largest shareholder, still holds twelve percent, but cannot prevent a takeover.
