USA and Iran on the Brink of Open Confrontation: Trump Declares Himself "Guardian of the Strait of Hormuz"

Attacks and Escalation

Trump then declared via his platform Truth Social that the USA was henceforth the "guardian of the Strait of Hormuz." In a radio interview, he also suggested that US forces could soon attack the underground facility "Pickaxe Mountain" near the Natanz nuclear site. He described the target as a possible location for a "big, fat" strike that would come "relatively soon." The US military has already conducted attacks on Iranian coastal defense systems as well as drone and missile positions for three consecutive nights. The new wave of strikes was declared concluded on Tuesday morning.

At the same time, Trump announced the reimposition of a naval blockade against Iranian ports. The US President is demanding a fee of 20 percent of the value of every cargo transported through the strait. "The US President wants money for security, for the USA accompanying all ships through the Strait of Hormuz," explained SRF business editor Charlotte Jacquemart. The "New York Times" calculated the transit costs for a large oil tanker at 30 million dollars.

International Reactions

The international reaction was predominantly negative. The United Nations International Maritime Organization stated that there was no legal basis for the fee announced by Trump. The German Shipowners' Association (VDR) also expressed concerns. "No single state should unilaterally make free access to an international waterway dependent on fees," said VDR Chief Executive Martin Kröger to "Wirtschaftswoche." Brazilian President Lula da Silva called the idea of a transit fee "piracy" ("Piraterie").

The Iranian government responded with mockery to Trump's move. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi wrote on X: "20 percent is too much. We will be fair." In a parallel statement, Tehran reaffirmed that Iran had always been the guardian of the strait and would remain so. In the Iranian parliament, a draft law on the Strait of Hormuz was debated, as confirmed on Monday evening by the chairman of the Security Committee, Ebrahim Asisi. Asisi emphasized that the leadership in Tehran would firmly defend its "red lines."

Charlotte Jacquemart warned of the economic consequences of US policy. She explained that all goods shipped through the Strait of Hormuz would certainly become significantly more expensive, which would fuel inflation once again. The shipping companies would pass the costs on to their customers, and those to the end consumers — that is, to the entire population. In addition, the USA would have to pay ever more for new debt because investors no longer trusted the situation. "Trump is doing himself no favor with the announcement of these fees," said Jacquemart. Congressional elections are scheduled in the United States in the fall.

Background: Framework Agreement and Intelligence Reports

The background to the escalation is a framework agreement concluded 30 days ago between the USA and Iran, which was intended to form the basis for deeper negotiations. The 60-day deadline has passed halfway. Both sides accuse each other of breaches of contract. Western observers interpret the Iranian attacks on commercial ships as a means of exerting political pressure on the international community and gaining negotiating leverage.

Terrorism expert Peter Neumann of King's College London explained on the podcast "RONZHEIMER" that Trump had apparently come to the realization in recent days that Iran might be trying to kill him. The background was intelligence findings from the Israeli Mossad regarding concrete assassination plots against the US President. "Something could happen, this plane is not well enough protected," Neumann quoted the findings as saying. Trump switched his return aircraft after the Ankara summit for security reasons. Neumann considers a large-scale US ground offensive unlikely but expects a further intensification of airstrikes. Attacks on oil facilities and civilian infrastructure are also conceivable.

In Tehran, posters reading "Kill Trump" were displayed at mourning rallies. Representatives of the Iranian regime repeatedly announced retaliation following the killing of Khamenei. The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's most important shipping routes: a significant portion of global oil and gas exports passes through the strait.

Economic Consequences and Legal Classification

With the mutual declarations as "guardian" of the strait, the already fragile ceasefire between Washington and Tehran has been de facto renounced. Several news agencies reported consistently that Trump had declared the ceasefire over. The situation remains highly unstable.

Unilateral fees on international waterways are not permissible under international law. Iran, however, had itself levied transit fees for passage through the strait in the past — a circumstance that is being invoked by Tehran in the current debate as an argument against the US position.