Western Europe Swelters Under Intense Heatwave as France and Italy Issue Top-Level Warnings

Labor Minister Jean-Pierre Farandou appealed to construction companies to halt work on building sites if the heat becomes too intense, though French labor law does not specify temperature thresholds for such a halt. Education Minister Edouard Geffray has so far ruled out postponing upcoming final exams in schools.

Since the start of the recent heatwave, historical high-temperature records have been surpassed in many places in France. Temperatures are currently between 10 and 15 degrees Celsius above the seasonal norm.

Italy on Maximum Alert

In Italy, the Ministry of Health declared the highest heat warning level — level three — for Rome, Florence, Bologna, and Turin. This level is triggered when high temperatures and specific weather conditions persist for three consecutive days or longer. Under a level three warning, potential negative health effects are warned for healthy and active people, not only for risk groups such as the elderly, small children, or people with chronic illnesses.

Temperatures of up to 33 degrees Celsius were expected in Turin, 32 degrees in Florence and Bologna, and 31 degrees in Rome.

The United Kingdom has also felt the heat, with temperature records broken in recent days as values reached around 35 degrees Celsius.

The Science Behind the Heat

According to the German Weather Service, Western and Central Europe are currently under a heat dome, where the sun heats the air through a largely cloudless sky. Hot and dry air enriched with Saharan dust from North Africa is moving into the region.

Greece is not affected by the heatwave and expects warm but pleasant temperatures between 18 and 32 degrees Celsius in the coming days. The Greek weather office reported that fresh sea breezes will characterize the period.

Climate Outlook and Global Context

The World Meteorological Organization published a new report in Geneva compiling forecasts from 13 different institutes. It states that the global average near-surface air temperature in this year and the next three years is expected to be between 1.3 and 1.9 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

There is a 91 percent probability that at least one of the coming years will exceed the 1.5-degree target set in the Paris Climate Agreement, as 2024 already did. Experts consider it possible that the entire five-year period from 2026 to 2030 will exceed the 1.5-degree target, with a probability of 75 percent.

Leon Hermanson of the UK Met Office, lead author cited by the WMO, stated that an El Niño is predicted for late 2026, increasing the probability that 2027 will be the next record year. The original quote reads: "Für Ende 2026 wird ein El Niño vorhergesagt, was die Wahrscheinlichkeit erhöht, dass das folgende Jahr 2027 das nächste Rekordjahr wird."

El Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon that happens every few years, warming the Pacific Ocean off South America. Its consequences include above-average rainfall in Central and South America and parts of Central Africa, and droughts in Australia, Southeast Asia, and southern Africa. In Europe, the direct effects of El Niño are limited.

The Paris climate target is considered breached only when the average temperature exceeds the threshold over a 20-year mean, according to the commonly used definition. The Paris Climate Agreement was adopted in 2015 and aims to limit human-caused temperature rise by reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

The French government is facing criticism for not adequately preparing the population for increasingly frequent and severe heat periods.