Coalition plans significantly larger tobacco tax increase – pack of cigarettes to cost almost twelve euros by 2030

Justification: budget and health

Chancellery Minister Thorsten Frei (CDU) explained on Monday morning on the ARD-Morgenmagazin that 19 billion euros would have to be saved next year without contribution rates rising. "Wir müssen schauen, wie wir das System insgesamt so halten, dass die 19 Milliarden Euro nächstes Jahr so eingespart werden, dass es keine Beitragssatzsteigerung gibt", said Frei. At the same time, the tobacco tax should also restrict an unhealthy lifestyle. Regarding the planned additional revenue for hospitals and inpatient care, one must "im gesamten System darauf achten, dass es nicht zu einer Steigerung beim Beitragssatz zur gesetzlichen Krankenversicherung komme".

According to the coalition's wishes, revenue from the tobacco tax is to benefit hospitals and inpatient care, among other things. By 2030, the federal government expects additional revenue of 4.4 billion euros, according to the current draft amendment. Overall, the tobacco tax could thus pump around 21 billion euros into the federal coffers. In 2027 alone, the higher rates are expected to bring in an additional 756 million euros.

Support from medicine and science

The coalition receives backing from the federal government's commissioner for addiction and drugs, Hendrik Streeck (CDU). He called the significant increase in the tobacco tax the right decision. "Der Preis ist einer der wirksamsten Hebel, um Jugendliche vom Einstieg abzuhalten und Raucher beim Ausstieg zu unterstützen", Streeck told the Frankfurter Rundschau. The president of the German Medical Association, Klaus Reinhardt, also spoke out in favor of a tobacco tax increase larger than planned, but demanded that the additional revenue be invested in prevention and health promotion and not into budget gaps.

SPD health politician Karl Lauterbach, member of the Bundestag and former federal health minister, also welcomed the plans on ZDF-Mittagsmagazin as "sehr gut" and described himself as "einigermaßen" satisfied. He said he would have raised the tobacco tax even more – "Ich hätte die Tabaksteuer noch stärker erhöht." The main benefit of the measure, he said, also lies economically in the fact that "viele Folgekosten der Krankheiten langfristig vermieden werden". At the same time, Lauterbach called for more investment in smoking cessation programs. He sees no contradiction between his desire for declining cigarette consumption and rising tax revenue. As early as January, he had spoken out on ZDF in favor of a tobacco tax increase.

Criticism from opposition and tobacco industry

Support also comes from academia. Health economist Stefan Greß from Fulda University of Applied Sciences explained that higher tobacco taxes demonstrably lead to fewer smokers. He does not expect any notable boost to the illegal market. "Der Konsumrückgang, den es gibt, der ist bis maximal zu einem Drittel – das sagen die Studien – auf Schmuggel und solche Dinge zurückzuführen. Das sind aber alte Zahlen." Katrin Schaller from the German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ) also emphasized that higher cigarette prices are an effective means of reducing carcinogenic consumption and keeping young people from starting.

Criticism of the plans comes from The Left. Left party leader Ines Schwerdtner said the measure was "keine Gesundheitsstrategie des Finanzministers", but "einzig und allein dazu da, um Haushaltslöcher zu stopfen". Greens chairwoman Franziska Brantner also expressed skepticism. "Es sei aber nicht klar, wo die Gelder landen würden", said Brantner with regard to the planned additional revenue and demanded that the funds be channeled specifically into the health system.

The tobacco industry is also sharply critical. Jan Mücke, managing director of the industry association BVTE, called the projected additional revenue "reine Fantasie". "Die Bundesregierung plant mit Mehreinnahmen, die reine Fantasie sind, nichts davon wird Realität werden", said Mücke. The tax increase would be "ein Konjunkturprogramm für die organisierte Kriminalität". He also pointed out that the tobacco tax on a 20-pack had already risen by 15 cents at the beginning of the year. Since then, the federal government has collected only 5.2 billion euros in tobacco tax, compared with 17.6 billion euros in the entire previous year.

The financial situation of the federal government is also part of the background to the debate. According to Chancellery Minister Frei, 19 billion euros in savings will be needed next year to avoid rising contribution rates in the statutory health insurance system. The tobacco tax is one building block within a larger consolidation package. The federal government is counting on rising prices dampening consumption while simultaneously increasing tax revenue.

Effects on consumers

The cabinet had already sent a tobacco tax increase on its way the previous Monday. The governing factions subsequently asked the Finance Ministry via the drafting aid to sharpen the draft. The now envisaged price range of 11.78 euros in 2030 corresponds, according to RND, to 42 cents more than assumed in the ministry's original draft bill and about 40 cents more than in the cabinet decision a week earlier.

According to the Federal Statistical Office, one in five people aged 15 and over in Germany currently smokes. Health experts and cancer researchers therefore see a significant price increase as a key instrument to keep young people in particular from starting and to reduce the long-term number of tobacco-related illnesses.

Further parliamentary deliberation on the amended draft bill is still pending. Until the project comes into force, the plans could still be changed.

This news was broadcast on 13.07.2026 on Deutschlandfunk. "Fast zwölf Euro für eine Schachtel Zigaretten – so teuer könnte Rauchen bis zum Jahr 2030 werden."