Heavy airstrikes on Sanaa airport intensify Yemen conflict

The Houthi militia rejected the government's account and instead accused Saudi Arabia of having carried out the attacks. Its spokesman Yahya Saree announced retaliation: "By God," Saree thundered. "This is an unjust and blatant act of aggression." The enemy will pay for it. "This will not go unanswered." The militia also declared that its delegation had been on its way back from the mourning ceremonies for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, whom the facts identify as the supreme leader of Iran.

Dispute over Iranian aircraft as trigger

The trigger was a dispute over an Iranian aircraft belonging to the airline Mahan Air, which had wanted to land in Sanaa coming from Tehran. The Yemeni government stated that it had previously tried in vain to persuade a delegation of the Houthi militia to use a Yemeni aircraft. The Iranian-backed Houthi militia had insisted on allowing "an Iranian plane to violate Yemeni airspace," the government said. The aircraft was ultimately diverted to the port city of Hodeidah; a plane belonging to the national Yemeni airline was prevented from landing in Sanaa. "A plane belonging to the national Yemeni airline was, however, prevented from landing in Sanaa," it was said.

The Houthis, who had officially placed themselves on general mobilization as early as the previous week, are supported by Iran and its so-called "Axis of Resistance." Saudi Arabia, on the other hand, stands alongside the internationally recognized government and, according to the facts, controls nearly all anti-Houthi forces. As a result, the Yemeni civil war – which in 2015 led to the intervention of a Saudi Arabia-led military coalition in favor of the government troops – has long been regarded as a proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

Houthis threaten Saudi Arabia with retaliation

Following the attacks, the government ordered the closure of all airports under its responsibility. The Yemeni Ministry of Defense had previously warned that it would act with "all available means" against violations of Yemeni airspace committed, in its view, by Iran and the Houthis.

The UN had brokered a ceasefire in April 2022 that largely ended the fighting in Yemen – although smaller skirmishes continued. The latest violence is, according to the sources' assessment, the most serious escalation in the Yemeni civil war in years. In the preceding days, tensions in the country had already increased, including through clashes between Houthi fighters and government troops south of Hodeidah, in which dozens of soldiers are said to have been killed.

Risk of another front in southern Arabia

Concern about a regional spillover is high: The Houthis could attack Saudi Arabia with missiles and drones or block the Bab al-Mandab Strait between the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean. This would be another blow to the global economy after the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The Saudi Arabia-led military coalition meanwhile stated that it had intercepted ballistic missiles that had allegedly been fired at the southern region of Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia itself initially did not comment on Monday's attacks: "Riyadh has not commented on the attack so far."

Most recently, Saudi Arabia itself had also been bombed by Iran according to information from the sources – an indication of the growing mutual escalation. After 2023, the USA and Israel had responded to Houthi attacks on Israel and shipping in the Red Sea with bombardments. As a result, the conflict that has been ongoing on the Arabian Peninsula since 2014 threatens to become a comprehensive regional hotspot, with direct consequences for global energy and commercial shipping.