Ifo Survey: Nearly 20 Percent of AI-Using Firms Consider University Graduates Easily Replaceable

Industries with the Greatest Willingness to Substitute

Only companies that already use AI were surveyed. According to the survey, 54.5 percent of companies in Germany use AI in their business processes. The Ifo Institute posed this question for the first time, in the researcher's words, which is why there are no comparison values from the past.

The willingness to replace qualified employees with AI-supported ones varies significantly between industries. In retail, the share is highest at 28.6 percent. The highest proportion of companies that consider AI to be at least equally suitable as qualified professionals in certain areas is found in retail at 28.6 percent, according to Ifo. Among service providers, the figure was 19.7 percent, and in manufacturing it was 14.6 percent.

Experience Remains Harder to Replace Than Degrees

Even more frequently, firms consider it possible to substitute against inexperienced workers, provided they use AI. When it comes to replacing an experienced employee with an inexperienced one, this share is as high as 62.7 percent. 15 percent of companies also rate it as easy to very easy to exchange experienced colleagues for inexperienced ones who are aided by AI.

The majority of companies do not share this assessment, however. The survey also shows that the increased use of AI in the economy not only triggers discussions about qualifications but also fuels fears. According to a survey by the opinion research institute Gallup, AI causes concern or provokes displeasure among more than 70 percent of "Generation Z," those born between 1997 and 2012. The increased use of AI is therefore leading to job cuts and causing a large proportion of young employees to worry about their professional future.

Concerns Among Generation Z

International examples illustrate the trend toward workforce reductions through AI. The British major bank Standard Chartered, for instance, plans to cut around 7,000 jobs. The German labor market is also seeing changes in job profiles as a result, although it remains unclear to what extent individual occupational groups will actually be affected.

The Ifo survey provides, for the first time, a broad data base on the spread of AI in German companies and on companies' attitudes toward formal qualifications. Researcher Anna Ruffert sees the results as an indication that while AI can take over individual tasks, it does not in every case allow for the replacement of entire occupational profiles. The debate over the value of professional experience and formal degrees is thus gaining an empirical foundation.

Contextualizing the Results

For "Generation Z," the figures are of particular significance, as they are at the beginning of their working lives. The concerns of young employees stand in contrast to the assessment of many companies that professional experience is harder to replace than a formal degree. Observers interpret the discrepancy as a sign that the labor market is in a phase of fundamental change.

The authors of the survey emphasize that the results cannot be transferred to all companies in Germany, but only to those that already use AI. For a comprehensive assessment of the impacts on the labor market, further surveys and longitudinal studies are necessary, according to the Institute. The available data nevertheless paint a nuanced picture: not every qualified activity is replaceable by AI, but in some industries firms see room for maneuver.

The report was distributed by the Deutsche Presse-Agentur (dpa) and is based on a survey conducted by the Ifo Institute. It thus provides an empirical basis for the ongoing debate about the future of work, qualifications, and the influence of Artificial Intelligence on the German labor market.