Knesset Approves Own Dissolution in First Reading – Coalition Dispute Over Conscription

However, two more readings are still pending before the bill can enter into force. When these will take place is currently unclear. In the previous month, a clear majority of Knesset members had already voted for dissolution in a preparatory vote.

Trigger: Dispute Over Conscription

The trigger for the coalition conflict is the long-simmering dispute over a legal regulation exempting strictly religious men from military service. Strictly religious men had been exempt from military service in Israel for decades. The corresponding exemption regulation expired about two years ago.

The ultra-Orthodox coalition partners had threatened to break up the government because the right-religious coalition could not pass a law exempting ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students from military service. Pressure on Netanyahu from these parties has increased significantly in recent weeks, according to government circles.

Dispute Over Election Date

The exact election date is also contentious. The strictly religious coalition partners are pushing for a vote in early September, as they hope for high voter turnout among ultra-Orthodox voters. Prime Minister Netanyahu, on the other hand, prefers a later date in order to be able to pass additional laws and advance military objectives.

According to political scientist Gideon Rahat, Netanyahu also wants to prevent the vote from taking place around October 7. On October 7, 2023, the militant Palestinian organization Hamas and allied groups attacked Israel, killing more than 1,220 people. 251 people were taken hostage to the Gaza Strip.

Situation in the Polls

In the latest polls, Netanyahu's right-conservative Likud party is leading, but expects significant losses. The right-religious coalition would then no longer achieve a majority. The opposition alliance Bejachad – the joint list of Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid – is also unlikely to achieve a governing majority, according to polls.

A poll published by the public broadcaster KAN in May shows Bejachad narrowly behind Likud. Given the fragmentation among voters, it is considered unlikely that either side can form a government alone. Netanyahu is simultaneously fighting for another term in office, despite an ongoing corruption trial against him.

In Israeli public opinion, many people also accuse Netanyahu of a failure of the security authorities on October 7, 2023. The exemption of ultra-Orthodox men from military service has become particularly controversial since the Hamas attack and a shift in public sentiment. At the same time, Israel is suffering from a significant shortage of conscripts, especially in combat roles.

Netanyahu, who at 76 is the incumbent prime minister and has held the office the longest in Israel's history, is seeking another term, according to his own statements. Whether he can secure a majority after the election is questionable based on the available polls.