Oil prices continue to rise in the war’s ninth month

New attack plans weigh on the market

News available in the fact report cites Saudi Arabia, Riyadh, Turkey, and the Houthi rebels, among others, as actors or locations mentioned in the broader context of the conflict. However, the information provided does not establish how their respective roles affect current oil prices. No reliable direct price differential or individual trigger is identified in the verified facts.

According to media reports, Turkey announced that it would send technical personnel and experts to support air defense, electronic warfare technologies, and other defensive measures. A member of Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Islamist-conservative AKP party said Turkish troops would not participate in offensive operations.

Turkey describes support as defensive

The lawmaker tied the agreement to a shared responsibility for a safe, peaceful, and prosperous future. He said: "An expression of the shared responsibility we have undertaken to shape a safer, more peaceful, and prosperous future." The statement makes clear that, according to the available information, Turkey’s support is defensive and focused on personnel.

Alongside Turkey’s statements, the New York Times reported on plans by the US and Israel for further attacks on Iran after the midterm elections. If such plans are carried out, further strains on energy supplies could be expected after a war that has already lasted nine months. However, the verified facts provide neither a specific date for an attack nor the scale of possible consequences for oil production.

Impact on energy supplies

Oil prices are responding to the combination of a long-running war and concrete indications of possible new attacks. Both factors increase the risk of disruption to production, transport routes, or available oil supplies. Given the lack of detailed data, the actual consequences remain uncertain.

For energy markets, the key issue is whether the attack plans cited by the New York Times are confirmed, altered, or postponed. Equally important is the role Turkey’s announced support will play as the conflict develops. According to the verified information, this assistance is technical and defensive; Turkish offensive operations are therefore not planned.

The situation thus offers no prospect of a quick easing of tensions. As long as the war continues and plans for additional attacks remain in the picture, uncertainty in the oil markets is likely to persist. For consumers, businesses, and governments, this means greater planning pressures and the risk of further price movements for the time being.