Pistorius Courts Canada for German Submarine Deal Amid Shifting Alliances

A Vision for Middle Powers

The push aligns with the vision laid out by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney in a widely noted speech at the Davos economic forum. "Middle powers must act together, because if we are not at the table, we are on the menu," Carney said.

Carney argued that joint investments in resilience are cheaper than each country building its own fortresses. "Common standards reduce fragmentation," he added, noting that fragmentation means weakness.

A deal for twelve new submarines worth around 37 billion euros would give Canada breathing room. Both sides are offering more than just a submarine contract.

Green Party politician Sebastian Schäfer, who accompanied Pistorius to Canada, said the trip shows that the defence minister today must fill a new role: that of an "external defence economics minister."

The Minister's New Role

"Canada is really important for us," Schäfer said, pointing to trade policy, rare earth minerals, and interoperability in defence cooperation with NATO's European pillar.

The visit comes amid broader geopolitical turbulence. Topics on the table include the back-and-forth over a withdrawal of US soldiers from Germany and Poland, US irritation over German criticism of the Iran war, the withdrawn pledge to station Tomahawk cruise missiles in Germany, and the support Ukraine needs.

Pistorius had considered stopping in Washington, but noted last Wednesday that connecting with the US "only makes sense if I meet the appropriate interlocutors in Washington." By Monday evening it was clear there were no appointments in the US capital, with neither Secretary of State Marco Rubio nor Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth available.

In a world of great-power rivalry, Carney has said, countries in between have a choice: "compete with each other for favour or join together to create a third way with impact." Pistorius is likely to remind the Canadian side of that.

Shifting Alliances and the US Factor

Speaking at the Canadian defence and security trade show Cansec, Pistorius said: "Sitting in front of the White House or any other building in the world and staring like a rabbit at a snake would not make us stronger. It makes us weaker."

He urged less attention on what others are doing and more focus on what nations can undertake themselves, specifically calling for NATO commitments to be met. Despite day-to-day unpredictability with the United States, he said military and political cooperation remains "still very strong."

Canada is also reordering its own relationships. The country currently sources around 80 percent of its military goods from the United States. The relationship has been strained not only by tariffs but also by former President Donald Trump's repeated wish to make Canada the 51st state.

A joint US-Canada defence body created in 1940 to coordinate defence matters has also come under scrutiny. Asked about this, Pistorius said in Ottawa: "There are diverse fields of participation for cooperation with the Canadians." He also pointed to ongoing negotiations on gas deliveries.

German state-owned company Sefe and Ksi Lisims LNG have signed a memorandum of understanding for the annual delivery of one million tonnes of liquefied natural gas. Deliveries are expected to begin in the early 2030s and run for up to 20 years.