Reports of Possible Russian Escalation: Insiders See High Probability of New Military Operations

Diplomacy in the Background: Trump in Talks with Putin and Zelensky

Trump had held separate phone calls with Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky the previous week. On Wednesday, he had also met with Zelensky on the margins of the NATO summit. On Thursday, Putin reiterated his position in a phone call with Trump. The content of the conversations was not officially released in full.

On the battlefield in the Donbas in eastern Ukraine, the Russian army is meanwhile making slow progress. From Kremlin circles, it was reported that Putin has nevertheless resolved to seize the remaining part of the Donetsk region. This resolve is interpreted as an expression of an unwavering war course, regardless of diplomatic signals sent outward.

Kremlin Signals Determination

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov did not reject this when asked on Thursday. Russia must strengthen its security, it was said in this context. The refusal to push back against reports of a possible widening of the war is being assessed in Western capitals as a worrying signal.

From Ukrainian government circles, it was reported that intelligence reports indicated that Putin is preparing new military operations or even an attack on another European country. Russian military experts are increasingly discussing in public a widening of the war, including possible attacks on European targets. These would include, for example, NATO bases in the Baltic states.

Scenarios for a Widening: NATO Bases and Arms Factories

More concrete is former Russian Defense Ministry employee Andrei Ilnizki. According to his information, a next phase of the conflict could include attacks on NATO bases in the Baltic states and in Romania, as well as on EU arms facilities that produce long-range drones and missiles for Ukraine. This list shows that not only military targets but also industrial sites of arms production could be in focus.

According to the assessment of military expert Jack Watling of the London think tank RUSI, Russia is not aiming for an open war with NATO in such scenarios. Rather, isolated attacks could serve to divide the alliance on the question of the appropriate response. This strategy would therefore aim less at a direct military victory than at political uncertainty within the alliance.

In addition, a confrontation with NATO could serve Putin domestically as political justification for an unpopular mobilization. A further partial mobilization would be difficult to push through in Russian society, but could be legitimized by an alleged security threat scenario. Thus, escalation would fulfill not only military but also domestic political functions.

Domestic Political Logic: Mobilization as Justification

The reports raise questions about the resilience of Western alliance defense. NATO bases in the Baltic states and Romania are located in immediate proximity to Ukraine. Their security is a central issue in Brussels, especially as NATO has significantly reinforced its eastern flank since 2022. The discussion about additional deployments is gaining urgency.

On the Ukrainian side, fear of a renunciation of the existing diplomatic channels is growing. Zelensky had most recently tried to obtain additional security commitments in the context of the NATO summit. However, it remains unclear to what extent these commitments would automatically take effect in the event of a Russian attack on NATO territory, as Article 5 of the NATO treaty provides for a political decision by the alliance partners.

Heavy Losses on Both Sides

At the same time, observers point to the high number of Russian losses. With an estimated 1.4 million Russian soldiers killed, wounded, or missing, Russia's personnel resources are considerably strained. A widening of the war would further increase this burden, but could also be used to obscure domestic political problems.

The reports from Moscow, Washington, and Kyiv point in a similar direction: despite isolated diplomatic signals, such as the Trump-Putin phone call, Russia is apparently preparing further military steps. If attacks on NATO bases or European arms facilities were indeed to occur, the alliance would face one of its most serious tests since the end of the Cold War.

Alliance Under Pressure: Europe Prepares

The coming weeks are likely to show whether diplomatic contacts between Washington, Moscow, and Kyiv can prevent the announced escalation or merely delay it. While the Ukrainian army remains under pressure in the Donbas, uncertainty about Putin's actual war aims is growing. What is clear is that tensions in Europe have reached a new level with the current reports.

International media and security circles are observing the development with growing concern. The possibility that a regional conflict zone could be drawn into a larger war has become reality. Governments in Berlin, Paris, London, and Warsaw say they are preparing for various scenarios, without publicly naming them in detail.

The case shows exemplarily how a regional war of aggression can gradually develop into a threat to the pan-European security order. The high number of casualties on both sides and Russia's continued territorial gains in the Donbas are interpreted as driving forces behind a possible new Russian offensive. Thus, the question of a diplomatic solution remains open while military escalation increases.