Trump declares ceasefire with Iran over

Military escalation in the Strait of Hormuz

The escalation was reflected the same day in military action. According to its own statements, the US attacked more than 80 targets in Iran overnight into Wednesday. The US military hit, among other things, air defense systems, anti-ship missiles, and more than 60 boats of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard in or near the Strait of Hormuz, according to US information. The strait is considered a central transit route for global oil trade.

Iran responded, according to its own account, with retaliatory strikes against US positions in the region. Iranian armed forces had attacked the US air base Sheikh Isa in Bahrain with drones "in retaliation for the aggression of the American enemy" and "for the violation of the agreement," the Iranian army stated in a statement carried by the state news agency IRNA. A court adviser in Bahrain, Nabil al-Ahmar, said Iran's "aggression" had been destroyed.

Iranian retaliatory strike on US base in Bahrain

At the center of the escalation is the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most important sea lanes. Iran's behavior in the strait was "completely unacceptable," according to the US side. According to the facts available, a significant share of international oil transport is normally handled through the strategic corridor; the oil island of Kharg, located off the Iranian coast — near which the Bushehr nuclear power plant is also situated — serves as Iran's most important oil terminal, through which around 90 percent of Iranian crude oil is normally transshipped.

The Bushehr nuclear power plant has the country's only operating nuclear reactor, which, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), was first connected to the power grid in 2011. The facility has come into sharper focus in recent days because it lies within range of the fighting around the Strait of Hormuz. Reports available in the present facts did not contain any information about damage to the facility.

Bushehr nuclear plant in the crosshairs of the combat zone

Trump most recently threatened Iran again, saying there would either be a deal or the US would "finish the job." With the unilateral abrogation of the ceasefire, this choice appears to be off the table from Washington's perspective. Observers interpret the choice of words as a signal that the US intends to continue its confrontational course.

The Iranian leadership around Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has, according to the facts available, not yet officially commented on possible further action following the latest attacks and the abrogation of the ceasefire. It therefore remains open whether Tehran will broaden the fighting or seek new channels of mediation.

NATO summit as a stage for US Iran policy

At the NATO summit in Ankara, developments in the Gulf stood alongside the Ukraine war as focal points. Trump used the stage to publicly reinforce his Iran policy and bring allies in line with his approach. No concrete decisions by the alliance on action against Iran emerged from the available information.

The mutual attacks and the abrogation of the ceasefire raise questions about the security of international maritime traffic and energy supply. If the Strait of Hormuz were to become a permanent war zone, the consequences for global oil markets and Europe's supply would be felt immediately. The coming days are likely to show whether diplomatic channels are reactivated or whether the escalation continues.