Ukraine attacks Russian ships in the Sea of Azov – Russia's fuel supply comes under pressure

Supply of Crimea under pressure

A state of emergency has been in effect in Crimea since June. The peninsula is increasingly dependent on sea and land routes that are under constant fire. Electricity is only available intermittently, six hours a day in Sevastopol. Those lucky enough to find a functioning gas station now pay four to seven times as much as they did in the spring. Real estate prices in what was once the pearl of the Black Sea are said to have dropped by 40 percent.

The Russian regional authorities reported five attacks over the weekend in the Bay of Taganrog, in which one sailor was killed. The Ukrainian medium-range drones have to cover more than 200 kilometers to reach that far. With a distance of more than 2,500 kilometers, the drone troops also set a new record when they hit the refinery in the West Siberian city of Omsk – Russia's largest facility for producing gasoline, diesel and kerosene.

With the latest attack, which triggered a major fire, the Ukrainians have now damaged all of Russia's ten largest refineries at least once with kamikaze drones. Nowak conceded on Friday that there is a fuel shortage in Russia. Unlike before, he also acknowledged the reason – damage to oil refineries as a result of Ukrainian drone attacks.

Energy crisis in Russia

Alexander Nowak, the Deputy Prime Minister responsible for the energy sector, initially dismissed the problems in early July as marginal disruptions in the logistics chain. There is enough gasoline and diesel, he said. However, experts estimate that functioning facilities now cover only 65 percent of demand. When it comes to gasoline, Russia – humiliatingly for a petro-state – is increasingly dependent on imports, including from Belarus, Kazakhstan and India.

Shortly after the attack in Omsk, the government extended the existing export ban on gasoline to diesel as well. At the end of June, Putin claimed in a television appearance: «Alles läuft bei uns stabil und mit einer grossen Sicherheitsreserve.» This depiction contradicts the situation in Crimea and the growing shortages inside the country.

Legal situation surrounding the Sea of Azov

From the perspective of international law, just over half of the coastline belongs to Ukraine. However, Moscow has considered the Sea of Azov a Russian inland waterway since the 2022 invasion. As early as 2018, the Kremlin had illegally denied Ukrainians free navigation to and from their ports. Among other things, Russia handles almost a quarter of its grain exports via this route.

For two months, the Ukrainians have been using their new medium-range drones to make the most important connecting roads to the Russian-occupied Crimean peninsula unsafe. Medium-range drones with a range of up to 300 kilometers monitor the roads to the front and burn not only military vehicles, but also dozens of fuel tankers and smaller depots in Crimea, near Donetsk or even in Luhansk. In the first phase, Ukraine systematically eliminated Russian air defenses in the occupied territories and in Crimea, which has been annexed since 2014.

Attacks on logistics and refineries

The road connection through occupied southern Ukraine measures 400 kilometers and is lined with destroyed trucks. Russian truck drivers take a great risk on the 400-kilometer route there. A drone attack on a refinery in the Russian Volga region of Samara, 800 kilometers from the front, also made headlines.

Popular military bloggers advised the chief of the Russian navy, Admiral Alexander Moiseyev, that he should shoot himself if he were unable to militarily secure the supply of Crimea by sea. The criticism of their own leadership highlights the nervousness in Russia, while Ukraine is step by step increasing its pressure on the supply lines.